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2. Liga
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Poland

2. Liga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 25.4%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Znicz Pruszków Elo 1,590.2
    Title 64.7%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.6
  2. #2
    GKS Tychy Elo 1,574.5
    Title 22.4%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.8
  3. #3
    Górnik Łęczna Elo 1,543.5
    Title 5.0%
    Direct drop 0.4%
    Exp. finish 5.3
  4. #4
    Sandecja Nowy Sącz Elo 1,552.0
    Title 1.6%
    Direct drop 0.9%
    Exp. finish 6.3
  5. #5
    Olimpia Grudziądz Elo 1,557.3
    Title 2.9%
    Direct drop 0.6%
    Exp. finish 5.8
  6. #6
    NKP Podhale Elo 1,539.8
    Title 1.3%
    Direct drop 2.0%
    Exp. finish 7.2
  7. #7
    Zawisza Bydgoszcz Elo 1,511.7
    Title 0.4%
    Direct drop 5.8%
    Exp. finish 9.0
  8. #8
    Stal Stalowa Wola Elo 1,520.5
    Title 0.5%
    Direct drop 3.6%
    Exp. finish 8.3
  9. #9
    Rekord Bielsko-Biała Elo 1,500.8
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 7.1%
    Exp. finish 9.7
  10. #10
    Hutnik Krakow Elo 1,506.4
    Title 0.3%
    Direct drop 6.8%
    Exp. finish 9.4
  11. #11
    Chojniczanka Chojnice Elo 1,542.3
    Title 0.6%
    Direct drop 3.3%
    Exp. finish 8.2
  12. #12
    Avia Swidnik Elo 1,484.1
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 17.1%
    Exp. finish 11.4
  13. #13
    Legia Warszawa II Elo 1,498.4
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 13.5%
    Exp. finish 10.7
  14. #14
    Falubaz Zielona Góra Elo 1,481.5
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 24.1%
    Exp. finish 12.1
  15. #15
    Sokół Kleczew Elo 1,436.0
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 75.2%
    Exp. finish 15.5
  16. #16
    Śląsk Wrocław II Elo 1,467.4
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 63.3%
    Exp. finish 14.8
  17. #17
    Świt Skolwin Elo 1,433.1
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 83.3%
    Exp. finish 16.1
  18. #18
    Resovia Rzeszów Elo 1,426.7
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 93.1%
    Exp. finish 16.9

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Legia Warszawa II v Resovia Rzeszów

H 49.5% · D 24.5% · A 26.0%

H D A

NKP Podhale v Świt Skolwin

H 53.3% · D 23.8% · A 22.9%

H D A

Górnik Łęczna v Znicz Pruszków

H 36.6% · D 25.4% · A 38.0%

H D A

Hutnik Krakow v Rekord Bielsko-Biała

H 42.2% · D 25.3% · A 32.5%

H D A

Śląsk Wrocław II v Zawisza Bydgoszcz

H 36.8% · D 25.4% · A 37.8%

H D A

GKS Tychy v Falubaz Zielona Góra

H 51.8% · D 24.1% · A 24.1%

H D A

Stal Stalowa Wola v Sokół Kleczew

H 50.9% · D 24.3% · A 24.9%

H D A

Chojniczanka Chojnice v Avia Swidnik

H 48.0% · D 24.7% · A 27.3%

H D A

Resovia Rzeszów v Górnik Łęczna

H 29.4% · D 25.0% · A 45.7%

H D A

Sokół Kleczew v Sandecja Nowy Sącz

H 29.4% · D 25.0% · A 45.6%

H D A

Znicz Pruszków v NKP Podhale

H 47.2% · D 24.8% · A 28.0%

H D A

Świt Skolwin v Śląsk Wrocław II

H 37.9% · D 25.4% · A 36.7%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 188 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,590.2 Elo · 729 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Olimpia Grudziądz

  2. Matchday 14

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,590.2 Elo · 729 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Olimpia Grudziądz

  3. Correction · Matchday 13

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,590.2 Elo · 728 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Olimpia Grudziądz

  4. Matchday 13

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,590.2 Elo · 728 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Olimpia Grudziądz

  5. Matchday 13

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,590.2 Elo · 727 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Olimpia Grudziądz

  6. Correction · Matchday 13

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,579.4 Elo · 726 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Olimpia Grudziądz

  7. Matchday 13

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,579.4 Elo · 726 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Olimpia Grudziądz

  8. Matchday 13

    Leader Znicz Pruszków · 1,579.4 Elo · 725 results

    #1 Znicz Pruszków · #2 GKS Tychy · #3 Olimpia Grudziądz

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Chojniczanka Chojnice: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.

Rating ahead

Olimpia Grudziądz: Volt has them 2 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    Znicz Pruszków

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,590.2 +49.8 last 5 WWWWW
    62.7 GV
  2. #2
    GKS Tychy

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #3 Elo 1,574.5 +31.7 last 5 DWWWD
    60.6 GV
  3. #3
    Olimpia Grudziądz

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #5 Elo 1,557.3 +14.6 last 5 WWDWL
    58.2 GV
  4. #4
    Sandecja Nowy Sącz

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #4 Form #9 Elo 1,552.0 −8.5 last 5 LDWLW
    57.4 GV
  5. #5
    Górnik Łęczna

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #7 Elo 1,543.5 +5.1 last 5 DWLLW
    56.2 GV
  6. #6
    Chojniczanka Chojnice

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #11 Form #8 Elo 1,542.3 −4.2 last 5 WLDWL
    56.1 GV
  7. #7
    NKP Podhale

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #6 Form #10 Elo 1,539.8 −5.7 last 5 LWDDD
    55.7 GV
  8. #8
    Stal Stalowa Wola

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #8 Form #2 Elo 1,520.5 +31.8 last 5 WLWWW
    52.9 GV
  9. #9
    Zawisza Bydgoszcz

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #7 Form #13 Elo 1,511.7 −20.7 last 5 DLLLW
    51.7 GV
  10. #10
    Hutnik Krakow

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #10 Form #18 Elo 1,506.4 −38.5 last 5 LLWLL
    50.9 GV
  11. #11
    Rekord Bielsko-Biała

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #9 Form #11 Elo 1,500.8 −9.4 last 5 WLDLD
    50.1 GV
  12. #12
    Legia Warszawa II

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #13 Form #4 Elo 1,498.4 +35.7 last 5 WWDLW
    49.8 GV
  13. #13
    Avia Swidnik

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #12 Form #6 Elo 1,484.1 +8.6 last 5 DDWWL
    47.7 GV
  14. #14
    Falubaz Zielona Góra

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #14 Form #16 Elo 1,481.5 −26.0 last 5 LWLDL
    47.3 GV
  15. #15
    Śląsk Wrocław II

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #16 Form #14 Elo 1,467.4 −21.8 last 5 WLDLL
    45.3 GV
  16. #16
    Sokół Kleczew

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #15 Form #12 Elo 1,436.0 −3.3 last 5 DLLDW
    40.9 GV
  17. #17
    Świt Skolwin

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #17 Form #15 Elo 1,433.1 −15.8 last 5 LWLDL
    40.5 GV
  18. #18
    Resovia Rzeszów

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #17 Elo 1,426.7 −12.6 last 5 LDLDD
    39.6 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 729 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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