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Admiral Bundesliga
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Admiral Bundesliga · Season

2026/2027 Now 2025/2026 2024/2025
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Austria

Admiral Bundesliga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 12 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 20.0%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Expected finish
  1. #1
    SK Rapid Elo 1,588.3
    Title 57.5%
    Exp. finish 1.6
  2. #2
    Salzburg Elo 1,610.1
    Title 34.0%
    Exp. finish 2.0
  3. #3
    LASK Elo 1,599.2
    Title 5.2%
    Exp. finish 3.3
  4. #4
    Sturm Graz Elo 1,590.2
    Title 3.2%
    Exp. finish 3.7
  5. #5
    Ried Elo 1,506.4
    Title 0.1%
    Exp. finish 5.7
  6. #6
    Hartberg Elo 1,504.8
    Title 0.1%
    Exp. finish 6.2
  7. #7
    WSG Tirol Elo 1,461.4
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 7.7
  8. #8
    Grazer AK Elo 1,462.2
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 8.5
  9. #9
    Rheindorf Altach Elo 1,447.5
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 9.1
  10. #10
    Austria Lustenau Elo 1,455.6
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 9.6
  11. #11
    Austria Wien Elo 1,470.2
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 9.5
  12. #12
    Wolfsberger AC Elo 1,427.7
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 11.0

Competition-specific qualification and direct-drop rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Grazer AK v Hartberg

H 39.7% · D 20.0% · A 40.3%

H D A

Rheindorf Altach v Ried

H 37.8% · D 20.0% · A 42.2%

H D A

LASK v WSG Tirol

H 60.3% · D 18.1% · A 21.7%

H D A

Wolfsberger AC v Sturm Graz

H 26.8% · D 19.0% · A 54.2%

H D A

Salzburg v Austria Lustenau

H 62.0% · D 17.7% · A 20.2%

H D A

Austria Wien v SK Rapid

H 31.3% · D 19.6% · A 49.1%

H D A

SK Rapid v Wolfsberger AC

H 62.7% · D 17.6% · A 19.7%

H D A

Austria Lustenau v Grazer AK

H 43.9% · D 19.9% · A 36.2%

H D A

Ried v LASK

H 34.0% · D 19.8% · A 46.1%

H D A

WSG Tirol v Austria Wien

H 43.6% · D 19.9% · A 36.4%

H D A

Hartberg v Rheindorf Altach

H 51.3% · D 19.4% · A 29.3%

H D A

Sturm Graz v Salzburg

H 42.3% · D 20.0% · A 37.7%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 72 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Salzburg · 1,610.1 Elo · 450 results

    #1 Salzburg · #2 LASK · #3 Sturm Graz

  2. Matchday 10

    Leader Salzburg · 1,610.1 Elo · 450 results

    #1 Salzburg · #2 LASK · #3 Sturm Graz

  3. Matchday 10

    Leader LASK · 1,613.6 Elo · 449 results

    #1 LASK · #2 Salzburg · #3 Sturm Graz

  4. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader LASK · 1,613.6 Elo · 448 results

    #1 LASK · #2 Salzburg · #3 Sturm Graz

  5. Matchday 10

    Leader LASK · 1,613.6 Elo · 448 results

    #1 LASK · #2 Salzburg · #3 Sturm Graz

  6. Matchday 10

    Leader LASK · 1,613.6 Elo · 447 results

    #1 LASK · #2 Salzburg · #3 Sturm Graz

  7. Matchday 10

    Leader LASK · 1,613.6 Elo · 446 results

    #1 LASK · #2 Salzburg · #3 Sturm Graz

  8. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader LASK · 1,613.6 Elo · 445 results

    #1 LASK · #2 Salzburg · #3 Sturm Graz

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Austria Wien: Volt has them 4 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

SK Rapid: the table has them 3 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Salzburg

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,610.1 +29.8 last 5 DWDWW
    65.3 GV
  2. #2
    LASK

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #3 Form #9 Elo 1,599.2 −32.2 last 5 LDLWL
    63.9 GV
  3. #3
    Sturm Graz

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #4 Elo 1,590.2 +14.6 last 5 WLWWD
    62.7 GV
  4. #4
    SK Rapid

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,588.3 +56.5 last 5 WWWWW
    62.4 GV
  5. #5
    Ried

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #3 Elo 1,506.4 +37.2 last 5 DWWWD
    50.9 GV
  6. #6
    Hartberg

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #5 Elo 1,504.8 +9.6 last 5 DDWLW
    50.7 GV
  7. #7
    Austria Wien

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #11 Form #10 Elo 1,470.2 −21.2 last 5 WDLLL
    45.7 GV
  8. #8
    Grazer AK

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #7 Elo 1,462.2 +5.2 last 5 WDDLD
    44.6 GV
  9. #9
    WSG Tirol

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #7 Form #8 Elo 1,461.4 −7.5 last 5 DLLWD
    44.5 GV
  10. #10
    Austria Lustenau

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #10 Form #11 Elo 1,455.6 −27.0 last 5 LWLLL
    43.6 GV
  11. #11
    Rheindorf Altach

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #9 Form #6 Elo 1,447.5 −4.4 last 5 LLWLW
    42.5 GV
  12. #12
    Wolfsberger AC

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #12 Form #12 Elo 1,427.7 −60.5 last 5 LLLLL
    39.7 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 450 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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