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Croatia

1. HNL

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 10 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 20.4%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Europe Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Hajduk Split Elo 1,602.3
    Title 22.7%
    Europe 92.4%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.1
  2. #2
    Dinamo Zagreb Elo 1,666.0
    Title 73.0%
    Europe 98.7%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.3
  3. #3
    Varaždin Elo 1,538.2
    Title 1.3%
    Europe 40.4%
    Direct drop 0.2%
    Exp. finish 4.0
  4. #4
    Osijek Elo 1,475.1
    Title 0.1%
    Europe 8.9%
    Direct drop 1.9%
    Exp. finish 5.8
  5. #5
    Rijeka Elo 1,550.7
    Title 2.8%
    Europe 50.2%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 3.7
  6. #6
    Istra 1961 Elo 1,479.4
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 4.2%
    Direct drop 5.1%
    Exp. finish 6.6
  7. #7
    Slaven Koprivnica Elo 1,462.1
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 2.7%
    Direct drop 7.5%
    Exp. finish 7.0
  8. #8
    Lokomotiva Zagreb Elo 1,466.3
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 1.6%
    Direct drop 11.3%
    Exp. finish 7.4
  9. #9
    Rudeš Elo 1,464.8
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.9%
    Direct drop 18.0%
    Exp. finish 7.8
  10. #10
    Gorica Elo 1,428.9
    Title 0.0%
    Europe 0.1%
    Direct drop 56.0%
    Exp. finish 9.2

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Slaven Koprivnica v Istra 1961

H 42.4% · D 20.3% · A 37.2%

H D A

Hajduk Split v Gorica

H 63.7% · D 17.6% · A 18.7%

H D A

Rudeš v Dinamo Zagreb

H 23.0% · D 18.7% · A 58.2%

H D A

Rijeka v Varaždin

H 45.9% · D 20.2% · A 33.9%

H D A

Lokomotiva Zagreb v Osijek

H 43.4% · D 20.3% · A 36.3%

H D A

Lokomotiva Zagreb v Rudeš

H 44.6% · D 20.3% · A 35.1%

H D A

Gorica v Slaven Koprivnica

H 40.6% · D 20.4% · A 39.0%

H D A

Istra 1961 v Rijeka

H 36.3% · D 20.3% · A 43.4%

H D A

Osijek v Hajduk Split

H 30.2% · D 19.9% · A 49.9%

H D A

Varaždin v Dinamo Zagreb

H 30.2% · D 19.9% · A 50.0%

H D A

Slaven Koprivnica v Osijek

H 42.9% · D 20.3% · A 36.7%

H D A

Rijeka v Gorica

H 58.3% · D 18.7% · A 23.0%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 126 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,666.0 Elo · 414 results

    #1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka

  2. Matchday 11

    Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,666.0 Elo · 414 results

    #1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka

  3. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 413 results

    #1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka

  4. Matchday 11

    Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 413 results

    #1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka

  5. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 412 results

    #1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka

  6. Matchday 11

    Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 412 results

    #1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka

  7. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 411 results

    #1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka

  8. Matchday 11

    Leader Dinamo Zagreb · 1,659.9 Elo · 411 results

    #1 Dinamo Zagreb · #2 Hajduk Split · #3 Rijeka

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Rijeka: Volt has them 2 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Osijek: the table has them 2 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Dinamo Zagreb

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,666.0 −9.6 last 5 LWLWW
    72.2 GV
  2. #2
    Hajduk Split

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,602.3 +7.2 last 5 WLWWD
    64.3 GV
  3. #3
    Rijeka

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #3 Elo 1,550.7 −1.8 last 5 DWLWL
    57.2 GV
  4. #4
    Varaždin

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #3 Form #9 Elo 1,538.2 −18.4 last 5 DDWLL
    55.5 GV
  5. #5
    Istra 1961

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #4 Elo 1,479.4 +0.6 last 5 WLWLD
    47.0 GV
  6. #6
    Osijek

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #4 Form #10 Elo 1,475.1 −9.9 last 5 WDLDL
    46.4 GV
  7. #7
    Lokomotiva Zagreb

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #8 Elo 1,466.3 +0.9 last 5 DLLWD
    45.2 GV
  8. #8
    Rudeš

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #9 Form #5 Elo 1,464.8 +4.3 last 5 LDWLW
    44.9 GV
  9. #9
    Slaven Koprivnica

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #7 Form #6 Elo 1,462.1 +19.0 last 5 LDWLW
    44.6 GV
  10. #10
    Gorica

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #10 Form #7 Elo 1,428.9 +7.6 last 5 DWLDD
    39.9 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 414 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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