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Chance Liga
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Czechia

Chance Liga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 16 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 23.4%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Expected finish
  1. #1
    Slavia Praha Elo 1,704.0
    Title 88.1%
    Exp. finish 1.2
  2. #2
    Sparta Praha Elo 1,617.4
    Title 6.7%
    Exp. finish 3.3
  3. #3
    Mladá Boleslav Elo 1,522.9
    Title 0.9%
    Exp. finish 5.9
  4. #4
    Sigma Olomouc Elo 1,545.7
    Title 1.4%
    Exp. finish 5.8
  5. #5
    Slovan Liberec Elo 1,539.2
    Title 1.3%
    Exp. finish 5.4
  6. #6
    Jablonec Elo 1,537.1
    Title 0.6%
    Exp. finish 6.6
  7. #7
    Zbrojovka Brno Elo 1,519.0
    Title 0.5%
    Exp. finish 7.1
  8. #8
    Teplice Elo 1,513.3
    Title 0.2%
    Exp. finish 7.9
  9. #9
    Viktoria Plzeň Elo 1,573.4
    Title 0.3%
    Exp. finish 7.1
  10. #10
    Bohemians 1905 Elo 1,486.1
    Title 0.1%
    Exp. finish 9.6
  11. #11
    Hradec Králové Elo 1,520.7
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 9.6
  12. #12
    Pardubice Elo 1,490.4
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 10.7
  13. #13
    Baník Ostrava Elo 1,439.1
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 12.9
  14. #14
    SK Artis Brno Elo 1,469.3
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 12.8
  15. #15
    Slovácko Elo 1,402.0
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 14.6
  16. #16
    Zlín Elo 1,384.8
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 15.7

Competition-specific qualification and direct-drop rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Jablonec v Slavia Praha

H 25.3% · D 22.3% · A 52.5%

H D A

SK Artis Brno v Zlín

H 52.2% · D 22.3% · A 25.5%

H D A

Slovácko v Teplice

H 30.7% · D 23.0% · A 46.3%

H D A

Pardubice v Slovan Liberec

H 37.3% · D 23.4% · A 39.3%

H D A

Sigma Olomouc v Zbrojovka Brno

H 45.8% · D 23.1% · A 31.2%

H D A

Mladá Boleslav v Hradec Králové

H 43.0% · D 23.3% · A 33.7%

H D A

Baník Ostrava v Viktoria Plzeň

H 28.4% · D 22.8% · A 48.9%

H D A

Bohemians 1905 v Sparta Praha

H 28.7% · D 22.8% · A 48.5%

H D A

SK Artis Brno v Bohemians 1905

H 40.9% · D 23.4% · A 35.8%

H D A

Hradec Králové v Sigma Olomouc

H 40.0% · D 23.4% · A 36.7%

H D A

Zlín v Slovácko

H 40.8% · D 23.4% · A 35.8%

H D A

Slovan Liberec v Bohemians 1905

H 48.7% · D 22.8% · A 28.5%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 146 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 643 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  2. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 643 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  3. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 642 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  4. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 641 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  5. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 640 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  6. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 640 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  7. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,709.8 Elo · 639 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  8. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,709.8 Elo · 638 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Viktoria Plzeň: Volt has them 6 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Mladá Boleslav: the table has them 4 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Slavia Praha

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #3 Elo 1,704.0 +4.7 last 5 WWWDD
    76.4 GV
  2. #2
    Sparta Praha

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,617.4 +31.8 last 5 WWWDW
    66.3 GV
  3. #3
    Viktoria Plzeň

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #9 Form #10 Elo 1,573.4 −11.1 last 5 LLWWL
    60.4 GV
  4. #4
    Sigma Olomouc

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #5 Elo 1,545.7 +4.9 last 5 WLDWD
    56.5 GV
  5. #5
    Slovan Liberec

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #6 Elo 1,539.2 −8.6 last 5 WWDLL
    55.6 GV
  6. #6
    Jablonec

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #7 Elo 1,537.1 −1.6 last 5 LDWLW
    55.3 GV
  7. #7
    Mladá Boleslav

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #3 Form #8 Elo 1,522.9 +6.0 last 5 WLLWD
    53.3 GV
  8. #8
    Hradec Králové

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #11 Form #13 Elo 1,520.7 −31.3 last 5 WLLDL
    53.0 GV
  9. #9
    Zbrojovka Brno

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #7 Form #9 Elo 1,519.0 −9.8 last 5 WLLWD
    52.7 GV
  10. #10
    Teplice

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #11 Elo 1,513.3 −4.7 last 5 LWDLD
    51.9 GV
  11. #11
    Pardubice

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #12 Form #2 Elo 1,490.4 +37.2 last 5 WWLWW
    48.6 GV
  12. #12
    Bohemians 1905

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #10 Form #4 Elo 1,486.1 +20.3 last 5 WLWWD
    48.0 GV
  13. #13
    SK Artis Brno

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #14 Form #12 Elo 1,469.3 +3.8 last 5 LLDWD
    45.6 GV
  14. #14
    Baník Ostrava

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #13 Form #15 Elo 1,439.1 −25.6 last 5 LLDLD
    41.3 GV
  15. #15
    Slovácko

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #15 Form #14 Elo 1,402.0 −3.9 last 5 LDWLL
    36.3 GV
  16. #16
    Zlín

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #16 Form #16 Elo 1,384.8 −11.2 last 5 LDLLD
    34.0 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 643 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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