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Chance Liga
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Czechia

Chance Liga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 16 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 23.4%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Expected finish
  1. #1
    Slavia Praha Elo 1,714.1
    Title 85.2%
    Exp. finish 1.2
  2. #2
    Sparta Praha Elo 1,617.4
    Title 9.1%
    Exp. finish 3.2
  3. #3
    Mladá Boleslav Elo 1,522.9
    Title 1.2%
    Exp. finish 5.6
  4. #4
    Sigma Olomouc Elo 1,545.7
    Title 1.5%
    Exp. finish 5.6
  5. #5
    Slovan Liberec Elo 1,548.9
    Title 1.4%
    Exp. finish 5.5
  6. #6
    Jablonec Elo 1,526.9
    Title 0.3%
    Exp. finish 7.0
  7. #7
    Zbrojovka Brno Elo 1,519.0
    Title 0.6%
    Exp. finish 6.8
  8. #8
    Teplice Elo 1,523.2
    Title 0.1%
    Exp. finish 8.2
  9. #9
    Viktoria Plzeň Elo 1,573.4
    Title 0.4%
    Exp. finish 6.9
  10. #10
    Bohemians 1905 Elo 1,486.1
    Title 0.1%
    Exp. finish 9.2
  11. #11
    Hradec Králové Elo 1,520.7
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 9.3
  12. #12
    Pardubice Elo 1,480.7
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 11.2
  13. #13
    Baník Ostrava Elo 1,439.1
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 12.6
  14. #14
    SK Artis Brno Elo 1,465.8
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 13.1
  15. #15
    Slovácko Elo 1,392.1
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 14.8
  16. #16
    Zlín Elo 1,388.2
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 15.6

Competition-specific qualification and direct-drop rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sigma Olomouc v Zbrojovka Brno

H 45.8% · D 23.1% · A 31.2%

H D A

Mladá Boleslav v Hradec Králové

H 43.0% · D 23.3% · A 33.7%

H D A

Baník Ostrava v Viktoria Plzeň

H 28.4% · D 22.8% · A 48.9%

H D A

Bohemians 1905 v Sparta Praha

H 28.7% · D 22.8% · A 48.5%

H D A

SK Artis Brno v Bohemians 1905

H 40.5% · D 23.4% · A 36.1%

H D A

Hradec Králové v Sigma Olomouc

H 40.0% · D 23.4% · A 36.7%

H D A

Zlín v Slovácko

H 42.3% · D 23.3% · A 34.4%

H D A

Slovan Liberec v Bohemians 1905

H 49.8% · D 22.6% · A 27.6%

H D A

Zbrojovka Brno v Baník Ostrava

H 51.7% · D 22.4% · A 25.9%

H D A

Teplice v Pardubice

H 47.5% · D 22.9% · A 29.6%

H D A

Slavia Praha v SK Artis Brno

H 68.6% · D 18.3% · A 13.1%

H D A

Jablonec v Mladá Boleslav

H 43.2% · D 23.3% · A 33.5%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 142 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

Bohemians 1905 +1 place

Slovan Liberec +1 place

Biggest faller

Pardubice -1 place

Sigma Olomouc -1 place

  1. Matchday 13

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,714.1 Elo · 647 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  2. Matchday 13

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 645 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  3. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 643 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  4. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 643 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  5. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 642 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  6. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 641 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  7. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 640 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

  8. Matchday 12

    Leader Slavia Praha · 1,704.0 Elo · 640 results

    #1 Slavia Praha · #2 Sparta Praha · #3 Viktoria Plzeň

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Viktoria Plzeň: Volt has them 6 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Mladá Boleslav: the table has them 5 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Slavia Praha

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #2 Elo 1,714.1 +7.2 last 5 WWDDW
    77.4 GV
  2. #2
    Sparta Praha

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,617.4 +31.8 last 5 WWWDW
    66.3 GV
  3. #3
    Viktoria Plzeň

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #9 Form #11 Elo 1,573.4 −11.1 last 5 LLWWL
    60.4 GV
  4. #4
    Slovan Liberec

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #5 Form #7 Elo 1,548.9 −9.7 last 5 WDLLW
    57.0 GV
  5. #5
    Sigma Olomouc

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #6 Elo 1,545.7 +4.9 last 5 WLDWD
    56.5 GV
  6. #6
    Jablonec

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #6 Form #10 Elo 1,526.9 −2.4 last 5 DWLWL
    53.9 GV
  7. #7
    Teplice

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #5 Elo 1,523.2 +12.8 last 5 WDLDW
    53.3 GV
  8. #8
    Mladá Boleslav

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #3 Form #8 Elo 1,522.9 +6.0 last 5 WLLWD
    53.3 GV
  9. #9
    Hradec Králové

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #11 Form #13 Elo 1,520.7 −31.3 last 5 WLLDL
    53.0 GV
  10. #10
    Zbrojovka Brno

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #7 Form #9 Elo 1,519.0 −9.8 last 5 WLLWD
    52.7 GV
  11. #11
    Bohemians 1905

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #10 Form #3 Elo 1,486.1 +20.3 last 5 WLWWD
    48.0 GV
  12. #12
    Pardubice

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #12 Form #4 Elo 1,480.7 +16.2 last 5 WLWWL
    47.2 GV
  13. #13
    SK Artis Brno

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #14 Form #12 Elo 1,465.8 +11.6 last 5 LDWDD
    45.1 GV
  14. #14
    Baník Ostrava

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #13 Form #16 Elo 1,439.1 −25.6 last 5 LLDLD
    41.3 GV
  15. #15
    Slovácko

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #15 Form #14 Elo 1,392.1 −4.8 last 5 DWLLL
    34.9 GV
  16. #16
    Zlín

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #16 Form #15 Elo 1,388.2 −1.0 last 5 DLLDD
    34.4 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 647 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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