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Denmark

Superliga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 12 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 30.1%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Expected finish
  1. #1
    FC Midtjylland Elo 1,645.9
    Title 67.0%
    Exp. finish 1.4
  2. #2
    FC København Elo 1,598.4
    Title 30.2%
    Exp. finish 1.9
  3. #3
    Viborg FF Elo 1,540.6
    Title 1.2%
    Exp. finish 4.1
  4. #4
    Nordsjælland Elo 1,559.8
    Title 1.3%
    Exp. finish 4.0
  5. #5
    Brøndby IF Elo 1,525.1
    Title 0.3%
    Exp. finish 5.0
  6. #6
    Horsens Elo 1,506.1
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 6.5
  7. #7
    Odense BK Elo 1,488.3
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 7.5
  8. #8
    AGF Elo 1,558.0
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 7.4
  9. #9
    Silkeborg IF Elo 1,464.2
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 8.7
  10. #10
    Randers FC Elo 1,425.3
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 10.4
  11. #11
    Lyngby Boldklub Elo 1,436.2
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 10.2
  12. #12
    Sønderjyske Fodbold Elo 1,448.4
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 10.8

Competition-specific qualification and direct-drop rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Viborg FF v Horsens

H 42.6% · D 29.7% · A 27.7%

H D A

Odense BK v Silkeborg IF

H 41.5% · D 29.8% · A 28.7%

H D A

Nordsjælland v FC Midtjylland

H 30.4% · D 30.0% · A 39.6%

H D A

Brøndby IF v AGF

H 35.6% · D 30.1% · A 34.2%

H D A

Sønderjyske Fodbold v FC København

H 24.6% · D 29.1% · A 46.3%

H D A

Silkeborg IF v Lyngby Boldklub

H 41.9% · D 29.7% · A 28.3%

H D A

Odense BK v Viborg FF

H 33.7% · D 30.1% · A 36.2%

H D A

FC København v Brøndby IF

H 46.7% · D 29.0% · A 24.3%

H D A

AGF v Horsens

H 44.4% · D 29.4% · A 26.2%

H D A

Randers FC v Nordsjælland

H 25.9% · D 29.4% · A 44.7%

H D A

FC Midtjylland v Sønderjyske Fodbold

H 59.2% · D 25.8% · A 15.1%

H D A

AGF v Lyngby Boldklub

H 51.7% · D 28.0% · A 20.4%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 59 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 13

    Leader FC Midtjylland · 1,645.9 Elo · 458 results

    #1 FC Midtjylland · #2 FC København · #3 Nordsjælland

  2. Matchday 13

    Leader FC Midtjylland · 1,645.9 Elo · 458 results

    #1 FC Midtjylland · #2 FC København · #3 Nordsjælland

  3. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader FC Midtjylland · 1,645.9 Elo · 457 results

    #1 FC Midtjylland · #2 FC København · #3 Nordsjælland

  4. Matchday 12

    Leader FC Midtjylland · 1,645.9 Elo · 457 results

    #1 FC Midtjylland · #2 FC København · #3 Nordsjælland

  5. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader FC Midtjylland · 1,645.9 Elo · 456 results

    #1 FC Midtjylland · #2 FC København · #3 Nordsjælland

  6. Matchday 12

    Leader FC Midtjylland · 1,645.9 Elo · 456 results

    #1 FC Midtjylland · #2 FC København · #3 Nordsjælland

  7. Matchday 12

    Leader FC Midtjylland · 1,645.9 Elo · 455 results

    #1 FC Midtjylland · #2 FC København · #3 Nordsjælland

  8. Matchday 12

    Leader FC Midtjylland · 1,645.9 Elo · 454 results

    #1 FC Midtjylland · #2 FC København · #3 Nordsjælland

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

AGF: Volt has them 4 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Viborg FF: the table has them 2 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    FC Midtjylland

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,645.9 +27.0 last 5 WDWWW
    69.8 GV
  2. #2
    FC København

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #3 Elo 1,598.4 +1.1 last 5 WWLDD
    63.8 GV
  3. #3
    Nordsjælland

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #4 Form #10 Elo 1,559.8 −12.2 last 5 WLDDD
    58.5 GV
  4. #4
    AGF

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #8 Form #4 Elo 1,558.0 +10.6 last 5 LDWDW
    58.3 GV
  5. #5
    Viborg FF

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #5 Elo 1,540.6 +5.8 last 5 DWWLL
    55.8 GV
  6. #6
    Brøndby IF

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #8 Elo 1,525.1 −7.3 last 5 LLWLW
    53.6 GV
  7. #7
    Horsens

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #7 Elo 1,506.1 +1.8 last 5 LDDDW
    50.9 GV
  8. #8
    Odense BK

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #7 Form #2 Elo 1,488.3 +33.5 last 5 WDDWD
    48.3 GV
  9. #9
    Silkeborg IF

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #9 Form #9 Elo 1,464.2 +3.8 last 5 DWDLD
    44.9 GV
  10. #10
    Sønderjyske Fodbold

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #12 Form #6 Elo 1,448.4 +6.9 last 5 DWLWL
    42.6 GV
  11. #11
    Lyngby Boldklub

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #11 Form #11 Elo 1,436.2 −17.7 last 5 LLDLW
    40.9 GV
  12. #12
    Randers FC

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #10 Form #12 Elo 1,425.3 −40.1 last 5 LLDLL
    39.4 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 458 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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