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GolVolt
Ligue 2
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France

Ligue 2

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 31.1%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Saint-Étienne Elo 1,599.8
    Title 65.3%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.7
  2. #2
    Montpellier Elo 1,566.9
    Title 16.4%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 3.2
  3. #3
    Nancy Elo 1,501.0
    Title 2.1%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 6.3
  4. #4
    Reims Elo 1,575.2
    Title 8.9%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 4.2
  5. #5
    Pau Elo 1,492.3
    Title 0.7%
    Direct drop 0.7%
    Exp. finish 7.9
  6. #6
    Red Star Elo 1,534.3
    Title 2.5%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 6.0
  7. #7
    Annecy Elo 1,533.5
    Title 2.0%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 6.4
  8. #8
    Metz Elo 1,555.5
    Title 1.7%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 6.6
  9. #9
    Dijon Elo 1,493.8
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 3.2%
    Exp. finish 10.1
  10. #10
    Dunkerque Elo 1,481.2
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 5.4%
    Exp. finish 10.9
  11. #11
    Guingamp Elo 1,457.0
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 11.2%
    Exp. finish 12.4
  12. #12
    Sochaux Elo 1,480.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 8.3%
    Exp. finish 11.8
  13. #13
    Boulogne Elo 1,463.1
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 12.8%
    Exp. finish 12.7
  14. #14
    Rodez Elo 1,508.8
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 5.6%
    Exp. finish 11.0
  15. #15
    Nantes Elo 1,463.9
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 22.2%
    Exp. finish 13.8
  16. #16
    Grenoble Foot 38 Elo 1,450.5
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 27.9%
    Exp. finish 14.3
  17. #17
    Clermont Elo 1,431.4
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 44.6%
    Exp. finish 15.5
  18. #18
    Laval Elo 1,422.5
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 57.3%
    Exp. finish 16.1

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Rodez v Dunkerque

H 41.3% · D 30.7% · A 28.0%

H D A

Nantes v Clermont

H 41.8% · D 30.6% · A 27.5%

H D A

Metz v Pau

H 45.0% · D 30.2% · A 24.8%

H D A

Laval v Boulogne

H 34.4% · D 31.1% · A 34.5%

H D A

Grenoble Foot 38 v Dijon

H 34.1% · D 31.1% · A 34.8%

H D A

Annecy v Montpellier

H 35.1% · D 31.1% · A 33.8%

H D A

Guingamp v Saint-Étienne

H 24.9% · D 30.2% · A 44.9%

H D A

Reims v Sochaux

H 48.2% · D 29.6% · A 22.2%

H D A

Red Star v Nancy

H 41.9% · D 30.6% · A 27.5%

H D A

Nancy v Sochaux

H 40.5% · D 30.8% · A 28.7%

H D A

Montpellier v Metz

H 39.6% · D 30.9% · A 29.5%

H D A

Grenoble Foot 38 v Reims

H 26.4% · D 30.5% · A 43.1%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 216 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 702 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  2. Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 702 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  3. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 700 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  4. Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,599.8 Elo · 700 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  5. Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,594.2 Elo · 699 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  6. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,594.2 Elo · 698 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  7. Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,594.2 Elo · 698 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

  8. Matchday 10

    Leader Saint-Étienne · 1,594.2 Elo · 697 results

    #1 Saint-Étienne · #2 Reims · #3 Montpellier

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Rodez: Volt has them 7 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Nancy: the table has them 5 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Saint-Étienne

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #1 Form #4 Elo 1,599.8 +13.9 last 5 LDWWW
    64.0 GV
  2. #2
    Reims

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #4 Form #5 Elo 1,575.2 +11.7 last 5 WDDWD
    60.7 GV
  3. #3
    Montpellier

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,566.9 +41.0 last 5 WDWWW
    59.5 GV
  4. #4
    Metz

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #8 Form #12 Elo 1,555.5 −17.8 last 5 LDLWD
    57.9 GV
  5. #5
    Red Star

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #6 Elo 1,534.3 +11.9 last 5 WWWLL
    54.9 GV
  6. #6
    Annecy

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #7 Form #10 Elo 1,533.5 −13.5 last 5 LLWLW
    54.8 GV
  7. #7
    Rodez

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #14 Form #17 Elo 1,508.8 −38.3 last 5 LLLLW
    51.3 GV
  8. #8
    Nancy

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #3 Form #3 Elo 1,501.0 +33.0 last 5 LWWWW
    50.1 GV
  9. #9
    Dijon

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #9 Form #7 Elo 1,493.8 +13.0 last 5 WWWLL
    49.1 GV
  10. #10
    Pau

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #5 Form #2 Elo 1,492.3 +32.1 last 5 LWWWW
    48.9 GV
  11. #11
    Dunkerque

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #10 Form #8 Elo 1,481.2 +2.2 last 5 WLLWD
    47.3 GV
  12. #12
    Sochaux

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #12 Form #13 Elo 1,480.8 −15.7 last 5 WDDLL
    47.2 GV
  13. #13
    Nantes

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #15 Form #14 Elo 1,463.9 −13.2 last 5 LWDLL
    44.8 GV
  14. #14
    Boulogne

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #13 Form #9 Elo 1,463.1 +10.2 last 5 DLDWD
    44.7 GV
  15. #15
    Guingamp

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #11 Form #11 Elo 1,457.0 −5.7 last 5 WLLLW
    43.8 GV
  16. #16
    Grenoble Foot 38

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #16 Form #15 Elo 1,450.5 −21.0 last 5 WDLLL
    42.9 GV
  17. #17
    Clermont

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #17 Form #16 Elo 1,431.4 −20.8 last 5 DDLDL
    40.3 GV
  18. #18
    Laval

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #18 Elo 1,422.5 −23.0 last 5 LDLDL
    39.0 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 702 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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