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Greece

Super League

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 14 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 20.0%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Expected finish
  1. #1
    Panathinaikos Elo 1,620.5
    Title 32.1%
    Exp. finish 2.4
  2. #2
    Olympiacos F.C. Elo 1,660.6
    Title 28.8%
    Exp. finish 2.4
  3. #3
    AEK Athens Elo 1,655.0
    Title 32.1%
    Exp. finish 2.4
  4. #4
    Aris Elo 1,556.9
    Title 2.5%
    Exp. finish 4.9
  5. #5
    PAOK Elo 1,605.4
    Title 4.3%
    Exp. finish 4.2
  6. #6
    OFI Elo 1,497.1
    Title 0.2%
    Exp. finish 6.9
  7. #7
    Kifisia Elo 1,483.4
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 8.1
  8. #8
    Kalamata Elo 1,499.7
    Title 0.1%
    Exp. finish 8.1
  9. #9
    Iraklis 1908 FC Elo 1,495.3
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 8.6
  10. #10
    Panaitolikos Elo 1,443.4
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 9.8
  11. #11
    Asteras Tripolis Elo 1,444.2
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 11.0
  12. #12
    Levadiakos Elo 1,471.7
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 11.5
  13. #13
    Atromitos Elo 1,457.4
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 11.5
  14. #14
    Volos NFC Elo 1,396.5
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 13.2

Competition-specific qualification and direct-drop rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Atromitos v AEK Athens

H 23.4% · D 18.5% · A 58.1%

H D A

Kifisia v Olympiacos F.C.

H 25.3% · D 18.8% · A 55.8%

H D A

Levadiakos v Aris

H 34.9% · D 19.9% · A 45.3%

H D A

Panaitolikos v OFI

H 38.4% · D 20.0% · A 41.6%

H D A

PAOK v Asteras Tripolis

H 62.7% · D 17.6% · A 19.7%

H D A

Panathinaikos v AEK Athens

H 40.6% · D 20.0% · A 39.4%

H D A

Atromitos v Volos NFC

H 51.7% · D 19.3% · A 28.9%

H D A

Kalamata v Iraklis 1908 FC

H 45.2% · D 19.9% · A 35.0%

H D A

Volos NFC v Kifisia

H 34.7% · D 19.9% · A 45.4%

H D A

Aris v Panaitolikos

H 57.6% · D 18.5% · A 23.8%

H D A

Asteras Tripolis v Kalamata

H 38.2% · D 20.0% · A 41.8%

H D A

AEK Athens v Levadiakos

H 65.0% · D 17.1% · A 18.0%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 127 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 8

    Leader Olympiacos F.C. · 1,660.6 Elo · 527 results

    #1 Olympiacos F.C. · #2 AEK Athens · #3 Panathinaikos

  2. Matchday 8

    Leader Olympiacos F.C. · 1,660.6 Elo · 527 results

    #1 Olympiacos F.C. · #2 AEK Athens · #3 Panathinaikos

  3. Matchday 8

    Leader Olympiacos F.C. · 1,660.6 Elo · 526 results

    #1 Olympiacos F.C. · #2 AEK Athens · #3 Panathinaikos

  4. Matchday 8

    Leader Olympiacos F.C. · 1,660.6 Elo · 525 results

    #1 Olympiacos F.C. · #2 AEK Athens · #3 Panathinaikos

  5. Matchday 8

    Leader Olympiacos F.C. · 1,660.6 Elo · 524 results

    #1 Olympiacos F.C. · #2 AEK Athens · #3 PAOK

  6. Correction · Matchday 8

    Leader AEK Athens · 1,655.0 Elo · 523 results

    #1 AEK Athens · #2 Olympiacos F.C. · #3 PAOK

  7. Matchday 8

    Leader AEK Athens · 1,655.0 Elo · 523 results

    #1 AEK Athens · #2 Olympiacos F.C. · #3 PAOK

  8. Matchday 8

    Leader Olympiacos F.C. · 1,652.6 Elo · 522 results

    #1 Olympiacos F.C. · #2 AEK Athens · #3 PAOK

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Panaitolikos: the table has them 3 places higher than Volt.

Results ahead

Panathinaikos: the table has them 2 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Olympiacos F.C.

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,660.6 +15.9 last 5 LWWWW
    71.6 GV
  2. #2
    AEK Athens

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #1 Elo 1,655.0 +24.8 last 5 WDWWW
    70.9 GV
  3. #3
    Panathinaikos

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #3 Elo 1,620.5 +20.2 last 5 WWLWW
    66.7 GV
  4. #4
    PAOK

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #6 Elo 1,605.4 −7.6 last 5 WWLWL
    64.7 GV
  5. #5
    Aris

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #5 Elo 1,556.9 +12.3 last 5 LDWWW
    58.1 GV
  6. #6
    Kalamata

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #7 Elo 1,499.7 +20.5 last 5 WLWWL
    50.0 GV
  7. #7
    OFI

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #8 Elo 1,497.1 +8.9 last 5 WDLLW
    49.6 GV
  8. #8
    Iraklis 1908 FC

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #9 Form #10 Elo 1,495.3 −7.5 last 5 DDWLL
    49.3 GV
  9. #9
    Kifisia

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #7 Form #4 Elo 1,483.4 +25.4 last 5 DWWLW
    47.6 GV
  10. #10
    Levadiakos

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #12 Form #11 Elo 1,471.7 −20.3 last 5 DLLDD
    45.9 GV
  11. #11
    Atromitos

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #13 Form #12 Elo 1,457.4 −29.8 last 5 DDLLL
    43.9 GV
  12. #12
    Asteras Tripolis

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #11 Form #9 Elo 1,444.2 +9.5 last 5 DDWLD
    42.0 GV
  13. #13
    Panaitolikos

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #10 Form #14 Elo 1,443.4 −41.5 last 5 LLLLL
    41.9 GV
  14. #14
    Volos NFC

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #14 Form #13 Elo 1,396.5 −21.6 last 5 LLLDL
    35.5 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 527 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

⌘K

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