Italy

Serie A

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 20 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 17.8%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Inter Elo 1,700.0

Title 63.6%

Europe 99.8%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.6
#2
Lazio Elo 1,601.5

Title 11.0%

Europe 93.6%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.5
#3
Roma Elo 1,644.8

Title 16.3%

Europe 96.0%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.0
#4
Como Elo 1,624.3

Title 7.0%

Europe 89.5%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 4.0
#5
AC Milan Elo 1,582.3

Title 1.1%

Europe 63.2%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 5.9
#6
Frosinone Elo 1,538.9

Title 0.3%

Europe 35.8%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 7.6
#7
Napoli Elo 1,597.2

Title 0.5%

Europe 57.9%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 6.3
#8
Juventus Elo 1,570.8

Title 0.2%

Europe 34.4%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 7.6
#9
Torino Elo 1,482.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 4.4%

Direct drop 2.7%

Exp. finish 11.5
#10
Cagliari Elo 1,466.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 2.7%

Direct drop 4.3%

Exp. finish 12.2
#11
Bologna Elo 1,524.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 9.7%

Direct drop 0.8%

Exp. finish 10.0
#12
Atalanta Elo 1,537.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 10.9%

Direct drop 0.7%

Exp. finish 9.9
#13
Genoa Elo 1,464.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.1%

Direct drop 9.6%

Exp. finish 13.3
#14
Lecce Elo 1,428.8

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 28.2%

Exp. finish 15.6
#15
Sassuolo Elo 1,466.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.6%

Direct drop 12.5%

Exp. finish 13.9
#16
Monza Elo 1,394.1

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 55.3%

Exp. finish 17.3
#17
Udinese Elo 1,442.5

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 40.0%

Exp. finish 16.4
#18
Fiorentina Elo 1,463.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.2%

Direct drop 25.0%

Exp. finish 15.3
#19
Parma Elo 1,431.1

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 46.7%

Exp. finish 16.8
#20
Venezia Elo 1,395.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 74.2%

Exp. finish 18.4

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sat 31 Oct
15:00

Bologna v Monza

H 61.0% · D 16.1% · A 22.8%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
18:00

Udinese v Roma

H 23.6% · D 16.3% · A 60.1%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
20:45

AC Milan v Inter

H 32.2% · D 17.4% · A 50.4%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
12:30

Como v Venezia

H 70.8% · D 14.1% · A 15.1%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
15:00

Lazio v Cagliari

H 61.5% · D 16.1% · A 22.4%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
15:00

Frosinone v Torino

H 52.6% · D 17.2% · A 30.2%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
18:00

Lecce v Genoa

H 41.6% · D 17.8% · A 40.6%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
20:45

Juventus v Napoli

H 42.7% · D 17.8% · A 39.5%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
18:30

Sassuolo v Fiorentina

H 46.3% · D 17.7% · A 36.0%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
20:45

Atalanta v Parma

H 58.3% · D 16.6% · A 25.1%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
20:45

Venezia v Udinese

H 40.3% · D 17.8% · A 41.9%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
15:00

Torino v Lecce

H 52.3% · D 17.3% · A 30.5%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 290 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

Correction · Matchday 9
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Inter · 1,700.0 Elo · 850 results

#1 Inter · #2 Roma · #3 Como
Matchday 9
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Inter · 1,700.0 Elo · 850 results

#1 Inter · #2 Roma · #3 Como
Matchday 9
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Inter · 1,700.0 Elo · 849 results

#1 Inter · #2 Roma · #3 Como
Correction · Matchday 9
Wed 28 Oct

Leader Inter · 1,700.0 Elo · 848 results

#1 Inter · #2 Roma · #3 Como
Matchday 9
Wed 28 Oct

Leader Inter · 1,700.0 Elo · 848 results

#1 Inter · #2 Roma · #3 Como
Matchday 9
Wed 28 Oct

Leader Inter · 1,700.0 Elo · 846 results

#1 Inter · #2 Roma · #3 Como
Matchday 9
Wed 28 Oct

Leader Inter · 1,695.4 Elo · 844 results

#1 Inter · #2 Roma · #3 Como
Correction · Matchday 9
Tue 27 Oct

Leader Inter · 1,695.4 Elo · 843 results

#1 Inter · #2 Roma · #3 Como

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Lecce: the table has them 4 places higher than Volt.

Results ahead

Monza: the table has them 4 places higher than Volt.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Inter
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #2 Elo 1,700.0 +20.7 last 5 DWWWW

76.0 GV

#1 25 pts

#2 DWWWW
1,700.0 +20.7
#2
Roma
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #3 Form #8 Elo 1,644.8 +11.0 last 5 DDWDW

69.7 GV

#3 21 pts

#8 DDWDW
1,644.8 +11.0
#3
Como
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #4 Form #4 Elo 1,624.3 +11.4 last 5 LDWWW

67.2 GV

#4 20 pts

#4 LDWWW
1,624.3 +11.4
#4
Lazio
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,601.5 +48.0 last 5 WWWWW

64.2 GV

#2 25 pts

#1 WWWWW
1,601.5 +48.0
#5
Napoli
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #7 Form #10 Elo 1,597.2 +1.8 last 5 DWLDW

63.6 GV

#7 14 pts

#10 DWLDW
1,597.2 +1.8
#6
AC Milan
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #5 Form #5 Elo 1,582.3 +6.1 last 5 WDWWL

61.6 GV

#5 18 pts

#5 WDWWL
1,582.3 +6.1
#7
Juventus
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #8 Form #11 Elo 1,570.8 −14.7 last 5 WDLWL

60.0 GV

#8 14 pts

#11 WDLWL
1,570.8 −14.7
#8
Frosinone
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #6 Form #3 Elo 1,538.9 +26.0 last 5 WLWDW

55.6 GV

#6 17 pts

#3 WLWDW
1,538.9 +26.0
#9
Atalanta
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #12 Form #13 Elo 1,537.4 −13.7 last 5 LWLDD

55.4 GV

#12 11 pts

#13 LWLDD
1,537.4 −13.7
#10
Bologna
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #11 Form #6 Elo 1,524.9 +30.4 last 5 DWLWW

53.6 GV

#11 11 pts

#6 DWLWW
1,524.9 +30.4
#11
Torino
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #9 Form #7 Elo 1,482.4 +23.4 last 5 DWWWL

47.5 GV

#9 13 pts

#7 DWWWL
1,482.4 +23.4
#12
Sassuolo
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #15 Form #20 Elo 1,466.9 −40.1 last 5 LDLLL

45.3 GV

#15 8 pts

#20 LDLLL
1,466.9 −40.1
#13
Cagliari
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #10 Form #15 Elo 1,466.2 −24.6 last 5 WDLLL

45.2 GV

#10 13 pts

#15 WDLLL
1,466.2 −24.6
#14
Genoa
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #13 Form #9 Elo 1,464.4 +20.1 last 5 LWLWW

44.9 GV

#13 10 pts

#9 LWLWW
1,464.4 +20.1
#15
Fiorentina
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #18 Form #18 Elo 1,463.3 −20.3 last 5 DLLLD

44.7 GV

#18 5 pts

#18 DLLLD
1,463.3 −20.3
#16
Udinese
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #17 Form #19 Elo 1,442.5 −45.3 last 5 LLLLD

41.8 GV

#17 5 pts

#19 LLLLD
1,442.5 −45.3
#17
Parma
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #19 Form #14 Elo 1,431.1 −16.9 last 5 WLLLD

40.2 GV

#19 5 pts

#14 WLLLD
1,431.1 −16.9
#18
Lecce
The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #14 Form #17 Elo 1,428.8 −19.2 last 5 LLWLL

39.9 GV

#14 9 pts

#17 LLWLL
1,428.8 −19.2
#19
Venezia
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #20 Form #16 Elo 1,395.6 −13.4 last 5 LLWLL

35.4 GV

#20 3 pts

#16 LLWLL
1,395.6 −13.4
#20
Monza
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #16 Form #12 Elo 1,394.1 +9.3 last 5 WLWLL

35.2 GV

#16 7 pts

#12 WLWLL
1,394.1 +9.3

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 850 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Serie A

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.