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Serie B
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Italy

Serie B

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 20 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 27.8%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Palermo Elo 1,622.8
    Title 73.8%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.5
  2. #2
    Modena Elo 1,534.9
    Title 8.0%
    Direct drop 0.2%
    Exp. finish 4.6
  3. #3
    Ascoli Elo 1,539.7
    Title 6.9%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 5.0
  4. #4
    Mantova Elo 1,514.0
    Title 2.1%
    Direct drop 0.8%
    Exp. finish 6.6
  5. #5
    Benevento Elo 1,520.7
    Title 1.8%
    Direct drop 1.4%
    Exp. finish 7.3
  6. #6
    Pisa Elo 1,565.6
    Title 5.9%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 4.9
  7. #7
    Südtirol Elo 1,472.9
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 9.1%
    Exp. finish 11.2
  8. #8
    Calcio Padova Elo 1,479.5
    Title 0.3%
    Direct drop 7.7%
    Exp. finish 10.6
  9. #9
    Hellas Verona Elo 1,504.8
    Title 0.3%
    Direct drop 4.4%
    Exp. finish 9.6
  10. #10
    Avellino Elo 1,487.0
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 7.2%
    Exp. finish 10.7
  11. #11
    Cesena Elo 1,460.0
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 20.1%
    Exp. finish 13.5
  12. #12
    Virtus Entella Elo 1,471.3
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 18.0%
    Exp. finish 13.0
  13. #13
    Juve Stabia Elo 1,510.3
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 7.0%
    Exp. finish 10.5
  14. #14
    Carrarese Elo 1,466.2
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 18.8%
    Exp. finish 13.2
  15. #15
    Arezzo Elo 1,467.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 22.2%
    Exp. finish 13.6
  16. #16
    Cremonese Elo 1,511.7
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 10.2%
    Exp. finish 11.5
  17. #17
    Vicenza Elo 1,478.2
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 18.6%
    Exp. finish 13.2
  18. #18
    Empoli Elo 1,433.4
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 51.6%
    Exp. finish 16.6
  19. #19
    Sampdoria Elo 1,431.5
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 64.3%
    Exp. finish 17.5
  20. #20
    Catanzaro Elo 1,481.6
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 38.0%
    Exp. finish 15.4

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Südtirol v Cesena

H 41.7% · D 27.5% · A 30.8%

H D A

Modena v Mantova

H 42.6% · D 27.5% · A 30.0%

H D A

Cremonese v Benevento

H 39.4% · D 27.7% · A 32.9%

H D A

Catanzaro v Calcio Padova

H 40.5% · D 27.6% · A 31.8%

H D A

Sampdoria v Virtus Entella

H 36.1% · D 27.8% · A 36.1%

H D A

Empoli v Juve Stabia

H 32.3% · D 27.7% · A 40.0%

H D A

Avellino v Pisa

H 32.2% · D 27.7% · A 40.2%

H D A

Arezzo v Ascoli

H 32.8% · D 27.7% · A 39.5%

H D A

Hellas Verona v Carrarese

H 44.5% · D 27.3% · A 28.3%

H D A

Palermo v Vicenza

H 55.6% · D 25.2% · A 19.2%

H D A

Ascoli v Palermo

H 31.7% · D 27.6% · A 40.7%

H D A

Pisa v Südtirol

H 50.2% · D 26.4% · A 23.4%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 290 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 9

    Leader Palermo · 1,622.8 Elo · 868 results

    #1 Palermo · #2 Pisa · #3 Ascoli

  2. Matchday 9

    Leader Palermo · 1,622.8 Elo · 868 results

    #1 Palermo · #2 Pisa · #3 Ascoli

  3. Matchday 9

    Leader Palermo · 1,622.8 Elo · 867 results

    #1 Palermo · #2 Pisa · #3 Ascoli

  4. Matchday 9

    Leader Palermo · 1,622.8 Elo · 866 results

    #1 Palermo · #2 Pisa · #3 Ascoli

  5. Correction · Matchday 9

    Leader Palermo · 1,623.3 Elo · 865 results

    #1 Palermo · #2 Pisa · #3 Ascoli

  6. Matchday 9

    Leader Palermo · 1,623.3 Elo · 865 results

    #1 Palermo · #2 Pisa · #3 Ascoli

  7. Matchday 9

    Leader Palermo · 1,623.3 Elo · 864 results

    #1 Palermo · #2 Pisa · #3 Ascoli

  8. Matchday 9

    Leader Palermo · 1,623.3 Elo · 859 results

    #1 Palermo · #2 Pisa · #3 Ascoli

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Cremonese: Volt has them 9 places higher than the table.

Rating ahead

Catanzaro: Volt has them 9 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    Palermo

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,622.8 +30.6 last 5 WWWWD
    67.0 GV
  2. #2
    Pisa

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #6 Form #5 Elo 1,565.6 +22.8 last 5 DWWDD
    59.3 GV
  3. #3
    Ascoli

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #3 Elo 1,539.7 +32.8 last 5 WDDWW
    55.7 GV
  4. #4
    Modena

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,534.9 +25.5 last 5 WWLWW
    55.0 GV
  5. #5
    Benevento

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #4 Elo 1,520.7 +30.1 last 5 WWDWD
    53.0 GV
  6. #6
    Mantova

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #4 Form #9 Elo 1,514.0 −2.8 last 5 DWLWL
    52.0 GV
  7. #7
    Cremonese

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #16 Form #13 Elo 1,511.7 −8.1 last 5 DDLLW
    51.7 GV
  8. #8
    Juve Stabia

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #13 Form #7 Elo 1,510.3 +9.7 last 5 DDWWL
    51.5 GV
  9. #9
    Hellas Verona

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #9 Form #8 Elo 1,504.8 +12.4 last 5 WLDDW
    50.7 GV
  10. #10
    Avellino

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #10 Form #12 Elo 1,487.0 −11.1 last 5 LWDLD
    48.1 GV
  11. #11
    Catanzaro

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #20 Form #19 Elo 1,481.6 −37.6 last 5 LLDLD
    47.4 GV
  12. #12
    Calcio Padova

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #8 Form #11 Elo 1,479.5 −8.6 last 5 LLLWW
    47.1 GV
  13. #13
    Vicenza

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #17 Form #16 Elo 1,478.2 −16.9 last 5 LLDWL
    46.9 GV
  14. #14
    Südtirol

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #7 Form #14 Elo 1,472.9 −11.0 last 5 WDLDL
    46.1 GV
  15. #15
    Virtus Entella

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #12 Form #10 Elo 1,471.3 +2.4 last 5 DDWLD
    45.9 GV
  16. #16
    Arezzo

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #15 Form #18 Elo 1,467.8 −30.2 last 5 LDWLL
    45.4 GV
  17. #17
    Carrarese

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #14 Form #6 Elo 1,466.2 +21.2 last 5 LWWLW
    45.1 GV
  18. #18
    Cesena

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #11 Form #15 Elo 1,460.0 −9.7 last 5 DLDLW
    44.3 GV
  19. #19
    Empoli

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #20 Elo 1,433.4 −35.5 last 5 LLDLL
    40.5 GV
  20. #20
    Sampdoria

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #19 Form #17 Elo 1,431.5 −15.7 last 5 WLLDL
    40.3 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 868 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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