Portugal

Liga Portugal

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 22.0%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Porto Elo 1,715.2

Title 69.3%

Europe 100.0%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.4
#2
Benfica Elo 1,697.3

Title 23.9%

Europe 99.6%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 2.1
#3
Sporting CP Elo 1,679.8

Title 6.6%

Europe 97.6%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 2.9
#4
Santa Clara Elo 1,526.4

Title 0.1%

Europe 47.6%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 6.1
#5
Arouca Elo 1,524.5

Title 0.1%

Europe 42.0%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 6.4
#6
Academico Viseu Elo 1,540.6

Title 0.1%

Europe 54.1%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 5.8
#7
Gil Vicente Elo 1,511.5

Title 0.0%

Europe 20.8%

Direct drop 0.2%

Exp. finish 7.9
#8
Alverca Elo 1,484.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 5.8%

Direct drop 2.1%

Exp. finish 10.3
#9
Sporting Braga Elo 1,545.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 14.7%

Direct drop 0.5%

Exp. finish 8.5
#10
Moreirense Elo 1,471.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 3.7%

Direct drop 2.9%

Exp. finish 10.9
#11
Famalicão Elo 1,534.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 10.4%

Direct drop 0.8%

Exp. finish 9.2
#12
Estrela Amadora Elo 1,426.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.4%

Direct drop 13.5%

Exp. finish 13.3
#13
Vitória Guimarães Elo 1,466.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.4%

Direct drop 8.4%

Exp. finish 12.4
#14
Marítimo Elo 1,467.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.5%

Direct drop 7.5%

Exp. finish 12.3
#15
Nacional Elo 1,418.0

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 33.2%

Exp. finish 15.0
#16
Rio Ave Elo 1,423.0

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.2%

Direct drop 28.8%

Exp. finish 14.7
#17
Casa Pia Elo 1,415.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 36.0%

Exp. finish 15.2
#18
Estoril Elo 1,414.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 66.1%

Exp. finish 16.6

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sat 31 Oct
16:30

Moreirense v Estrela Amadora

H 48.8% · D 21.4% · A 29.8%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
21:30

Porto v Estoril

H 74.0% · D 15.6% · A 10.4%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
16:30

Arouca v Nacional

H 55.6% · D 20.5% · A 23.9%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
19:00

Marítimo v Santa Clara

H 36.9% · D 21.9% · A 41.1%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
19:00

Academico Viseu v Rio Ave

H 56.8% · D 20.3% · A 22.9%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
21:30

Sporting Braga v Famalicão

H 44.8% · D 21.8% · A 33.4%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
21:15

Benfica v Alverca

H 66.5% · D 18.0% · A 15.5%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
21:15

Gil Vicente v Vitória Guimarães

H 48.7% · D 21.4% · A 29.8%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
21:45

Famalicão v Arouca

H 44.7% · D 21.8% · A 33.6%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
16:30

Nacional v Academico Viseu

H 30.1% · D 21.5% · A 48.4%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
19:00

Alverca v Casa Pia

H 51.4% · D 21.1% · A 27.5%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
21:30

Sporting CP v Moreirense

H 66.0% · D 18.2% · A 15.8%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 224 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

Correction · Matchday 10
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Porto · 1,715.2 Elo · 694 results

#1 Porto · #2 Benfica · #3 Sporting CP
Matchday 10
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Porto · 1,715.2 Elo · 694 results

#1 Porto · #2 Benfica · #3 Sporting CP
Correction · Matchday 9
Mon 26 Oct

Leader Porto · 1,715.2 Elo · 693 results

#1 Porto · #2 Benfica · #3 Sporting CP
Matchday 9
Mon 26 Oct

Leader Porto · 1,715.2 Elo · 693 results

#1 Porto · #2 Benfica · #3 Sporting CP
Correction · Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Porto · 1,715.2 Elo · 692 results

#1 Porto · #2 Benfica · #3 Sporting CP
Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Porto · 1,715.2 Elo · 692 results

#1 Porto · #2 Benfica · #3 Sporting CP
Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Porto · 1,715.2 Elo · 691 results

#1 Porto · #2 Benfica · #3 Sporting CP
Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Porto · 1,715.2 Elo · 689 results

#1 Porto · #2 Benfica · #3 Sporting CP

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Sporting Braga: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.

Rating ahead

Famalicão: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Porto
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,715.2 +31.7 last 5 WWWWW

77.5 GV

#1 27 pts

#1 WWWWW
1,715.2 +31.7
#2
Benfica
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #2 Form #3 Elo 1,697.3 +12.8 last 5 WWLWW

75.7 GV

#2 22 pts

#3 WWLWW
1,697.3 +12.8
#3
Sporting CP
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #3 Form #7 Elo 1,679.8 −8.4 last 5 DDWLW

73.8 GV

#3 21 pts

#7 DDWLW
1,679.8 −8.4
#4
Sporting Braga
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #9 Form #13 Elo 1,545.4 −31.5 last 5 WDLLL

56.5 GV

#9 11 pts

#13 WDLLL
1,545.4 −31.5
#5
Academico Viseu
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #6 Form #2 Elo 1,540.6 +53.8 last 5 WWWWW

55.8 GV

#6 17 pts

#2 WWWWW
1,540.6 +53.8
#6
Famalicão
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

Table #11 Form #6 Elo 1,534.2 +9.7 last 5 DDWLW

54.9 GV

#11 10 pts

#6 DDWLW
1,534.2 +9.7
#7
Santa Clara
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #4 Form #4 Elo 1,526.4 +23.7 last 5 WWDWL

53.8 GV

#4 18 pts

#4 WWDWL
1,526.4 +23.7
#8
Arouca
The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #5 Form #8 Elo 1,524.5 +11.8 last 5 DLDWW

53.5 GV

#5 17 pts

#8 DLDWW
1,524.5 +11.8
#9
Gil Vicente
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #7 Form #9 Elo 1,511.5 +11.0 last 5 LDWWL

51.7 GV

#7 14 pts

#9 LDWWL
1,511.5 +11.0
#10
Alverca
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #8 Form #5 Elo 1,484.2 +20.6 last 5 LWWWL

47.7 GV

#8 11 pts

#5 LWWWL
1,484.2 +20.6
#11
Moreirense
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #10 Form #10 Elo 1,471.9 +7.8 last 5 LWDLW

46.0 GV

#10 11 pts

#10 LWDLW
1,471.9 +7.8
#12
Marítimo
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #14 Form #18 Elo 1,467.6 −40.7 last 5 LLDLL

45.3 GV

#14 8 pts

#18 LLDLL
1,467.6 −40.7
#13
Vitória Guimarães
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #13 Form #12 Elo 1,466.2 −0.6 last 5 DLDLW

45.1 GV

#13 8 pts

#12 DLDLW
1,466.2 −0.6
#14
Estrela Amadora
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #12 Form #14 Elo 1,426.3 −21.2 last 5 WDLLL

39.5 GV

#12 10 pts

#14 WDLLL
1,426.3 −21.2
#15
Rio Ave
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #16 Form #15 Elo 1,423.0 −23.7 last 5 LDLWL

39.1 GV

#16 7 pts

#15 LDLWL
1,423.0 −23.7
#16
Nacional
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #15 Form #16 Elo 1,418.0 −24.9 last 5 LLLLW

38.4 GV

#15 7 pts

#16 LLLLW
1,418.0 −24.9
#17
Casa Pia
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #17 Form #11 Elo 1,415.6 +8.3 last 5 LWLWL

38.1 GV

#17 7 pts

#11 LWLWL
1,415.6 +8.3
#18
Estoril
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #18 Form #17 Elo 1,414.4 −36.6 last 5 DLLLL

37.9 GV

#18 2 pts

#17 DLLLL
1,414.4 −36.6

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 694 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Liga Portugal

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.