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Scotland

Premiership

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 12 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 22.7%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Expected finish
  1. #1
    Celtic Elo 1,683.6
    Title 78.4%
    Exp. finish 1.3
  2. #2
    Rangers Elo 1,638.4
    Title 17.7%
    Exp. finish 2.1
  3. #3
    Hearts Elo 1,608.0
    Title 3.8%
    Exp. finish 3.0
  4. #4
    Dundee Elo 1,488.5
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 5.7
  5. #5
    Dundee United Elo 1,499.1
    Title 0.1%
    Exp. finish 5.8
  6. #6
    Falkirk Elo 1,497.8
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 6.1
  7. #7
    St. Mirren Elo 1,436.5
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 8.4
  8. #8
    St. Johnstone Elo 1,447.6
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 8.4
  9. #9
    Aberdeen Elo 1,439.0
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 9.1
  10. #10
    Motherwell Elo 1,490.0
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 8.6
  11. #11
    Hibernian Elo 1,487.6
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 9.0
  12. #12
    Kilmarnock Elo 1,430.5
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 10.5

Competition-specific qualification and direct-drop rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Motherwell v St. Mirren

H 49.2% · D 22.1% · A 28.7%

H D A

Kilmarnock v St. Johnstone

H 41.2% · D 22.7% · A 36.1%

H D A

Dundee United v Hearts

H 31.2% · D 22.4% · A 46.4%

H D A

Falkirk v Celtic

H 23.8% · D 21.3% · A 55.0%

H D A

St. Johnstone v Dundee

H 38.5% · D 22.7% · A 38.7%

H D A

Dundee United v Motherwell

H 44.2% · D 22.6% · A 33.3%

H D A

Aberdeen v Hibernian

H 37.7% · D 22.7% · A 39.6%

H D A

St. Mirren v Rangers

H 22.3% · D 20.9% · A 56.7%

H D A

Hearts v Falkirk

H 55.5% · D 21.2% · A 23.4%

H D A

Celtic v Kilmarnock

H 69.5% · D 17.6% · A 12.9%

H D A

Kilmarnock v Aberdeen

H 42.2% · D 22.7% · A 35.2%

H D A

Hibernian v Dundee United

H 41.8% · D 22.7% · A 35.5%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 132 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Celtic · 1,683.6 Elo · 522 results

    #1 Celtic · #2 Rangers · #3 Hearts

  2. Matchday 11

    Leader Celtic · 1,683.6 Elo · 522 results

    #1 Celtic · #2 Rangers · #3 Hearts

  3. Matchday 11

    Leader Celtic · 1,683.6 Elo · 521 results

    #1 Celtic · #2 Rangers · #3 Hearts

  4. Matchday 11

    Leader Celtic · 1,689.5 Elo · 518 results

    #1 Celtic · #2 Rangers · #3 Hearts

  5. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Celtic · 1,689.5 Elo · 516 results

    #1 Celtic · #2 Rangers · #3 Hearts

  6. Matchday 10

    Leader Celtic · 1,689.5 Elo · 516 results

    #1 Celtic · #2 Rangers · #3 Hearts

  7. Matchday 10

    Leader Celtic · 1,689.5 Elo · 515 results

    #1 Celtic · #2 Rangers · #3 Hearts

  8. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader Celtic · 1,683.6 Elo · 514 results

    #1 Celtic · #2 Rangers · #3 Hearts

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Motherwell: Volt has them 4 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

St. Mirren: the table has them 4 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Celtic

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #3 Elo 1,683.6 +7.7 last 5 LWWWD
    74.2 GV
  2. #2
    Rangers

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,638.4 +22.1 last 5 WWDWD
    68.9 GV
  3. #3
    Hearts

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #3 Form #6 Elo 1,608.0 +2.7 last 5 DWLWD
    65.1 GV
  4. #4
    Dundee United

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #2 Elo 1,499.1 +39.7 last 5 WWDWD
    49.9 GV
  5. #5
    Falkirk

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #4 Elo 1,497.8 +22.7 last 5 DLWWW
    49.7 GV
  6. #6
    Motherwell

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #10 Form #12 Elo 1,490.0 −40.9 last 5 LLLLD
    48.6 GV
  7. #7
    Dundee

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #4 Form #5 Elo 1,488.5 +23.9 last 5 WWDLW
    48.3 GV
  8. #8
    Hibernian

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #11 Form #11 Elo 1,487.6 −31.5 last 5 DLLLD
    48.2 GV
  9. #9
    St. Johnstone

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #7 Elo 1,447.6 +4.5 last 5 DWDLD
    42.5 GV
  10. #10
    Aberdeen

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #9 Form #8 Elo 1,439.0 −16.1 last 5 DLWLL
    41.3 GV
  11. #11
    St. Mirren

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #7 Form #10 Elo 1,436.5 −22.6 last 5 LLLWD
    41.0 GV
  12. #12
    Kilmarnock

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #12 Form #9 Elo 1,430.5 −12.1 last 5 DLWLL
    40.1 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 522 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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