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La Liga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 20 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Draw calibration unavailable

Projection unavailable

Power Paths could not run

A league fixture is currently live; Power Paths refreshes after it settles.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 859 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  2. Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 859 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  3. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 858 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  4. Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,722.6 Elo · 858 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  5. Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,735.8 Elo · 857 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  6. Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,735.8 Elo · 856 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  7. Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,735.8 Elo · 855 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

  8. Correction · Matchday 10

    Leader FC Barcelona · 1,735.8 Elo · 854 results

    #1 FC Barcelona · #2 Real Madrid · #3 Atlético de Madrid

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Deportivo Alavés: the table has them 8 places higher than Volt.

Rating ahead

Rayo Vallecano: Volt has them 6 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    FC Barcelona

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #2 Elo 1,722.6 +14.0 last 5 WWWWL
    78.3 GV
  2. #2
    Real Madrid

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #3 Elo 1,673.8 +21.1 last 5 WLWWW
    73.1 GV
  3. #3
    Atlético de Madrid

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,619.3 +40.3 last 5 WWWWW
    66.5 GV
  4. #4
    Real Betis

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #4 Form #8 Elo 1,576.4 +2.6 last 5 WDWLD
    60.8 GV
  5. #5
    Villarreal

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #10 Form #5 Elo 1,560.1 +19.3 last 5 WWLDW
    58.6 GV
  6. #6
    Real Sociedad

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #5 Form #4 Elo 1,520.4 +30.6 last 5 LWWWW
    52.9 GV
  7. #7
    Celta de Vigo

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #6 Elo 1,514.5 +21.3 last 5 DWDWD
    52.1 GV
  8. #8
    Deportivo A Coruña

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #11 Form #17 Elo 1,494.1 −28.7 last 5 LDLDL
    49.2 GV
  9. #9
    Athletic Club

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #9 Form #10 Elo 1,493.6 −1.4 last 5 DDDLW
    49.1 GV
  10. #10
    Rayo Vallecano

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #16 Form #13 Elo 1,492.6 −16.5 last 5 LWDDL
    48.9 GV
  11. #11
    Sevilla

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #6 Form #9 Elo 1,492.6 +10.3 last 5 WLDLW
    48.9 GV
  12. #12
    Elche

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #15 Form #7 Elo 1,484.4 +29.5 last 5 LWDDW
    47.8 GV
  13. #13
    Levante

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #14 Form #11 Elo 1,479.9 −4.2 last 5 LDDWL
    47.1 GV
  14. #14
    Racing Santander

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #13 Form #16 Elo 1,475.3 −25.2 last 5 LLDLW
    46.4 GV
  15. #15
    Deportivo Alavés

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #7 Form #18 Elo 1,472.5 −28.9 last 5 LDLLD
    46.1 GV
  16. #16
    Valencia

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #19 Form #12 Elo 1,464.7 −7.6 last 5 WLDDL
    44.9 GV
  17. #17
    Getafe

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #17 Form #14 Elo 1,464.6 −15.4 last 5 LWLDL
    44.9 GV
  18. #18
    Osasuna

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #12 Form #15 Elo 1,449.9 −14.1 last 5 LDLWL
    42.8 GV
  19. #19
    Málaga

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #20 Form #19 Elo 1,449.5 −34.1 last 5 LLDLD
    42.8 GV
  20. #20
    Espanyol

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #18 Form #20 Elo 1,439.5 −36.4 last 5 LLDLL
    41.4 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 859 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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