Spain

La Liga 2

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 22 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 21.5%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Castellón Elo 1,609.7

Title 44.2%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 2.3
#2
Almería Elo 1,602.3

Title 31.6%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 2.8
#3
SD Eibar Elo 1,567.7

Title 8.2%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 4.9
#4
Girona Elo 1,546.8

Title 3.8%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 6.3
#5
Granada Elo 1,511.3

Title 0.8%

Direct drop 0.6%

Exp. finish 8.7
#6
Burgos Elo 1,570.6

Title 5.4%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 5.6
#7
Mallorca Elo 1,534.1

Title 1.7%

Direct drop 0.3%

Exp. finish 7.6
#8
Sporting Gijón Elo 1,518.6

Title 1.0%

Direct drop 0.9%

Exp. finish 8.8
#9
Real Oviedo Elo 1,557.0

Title 2.5%

Direct drop 0.3%

Exp. finish 7.1
#10
Sabadell Elo 1,520.1

Title 0.6%

Direct drop 1.2%

Exp. finish 9.2
#11
Córdoba Elo 1,494.9

Title 0.1%

Direct drop 4.8%

Exp. finish 11.9
#12
Tenerife Elo 1,473.2

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 11.1%

Exp. finish 13.6
#13
Eldense Elo 1,473.2

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 11.0%

Exp. finish 13.6
#14
Las Palmas Elo 1,519.1

Title 0.2%

Direct drop 4.8%

Exp. finish 11.6
#15
Real Valladolid Elo 1,451.4

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 27.8%

Exp. finish 16.0
#16
Celta Fortuna Elo 1,479.9

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 16.2%

Exp. finish 14.5
#17
Leganés Elo 1,443.0

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 31.1%

Exp. finish 16.4
#18
Cádiz Elo 1,424.9

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 55.2%

Exp. finish 18.3
#19
FC Andorra Elo 1,473.1

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 25.5%

Exp. finish 15.7
#20
Real Sociedad II Elo 1,428.3

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 61.0%

Exp. finish 18.7
#21
Ceuta Elo 1,435.5

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 75.4%

Exp. finish 19.8
#22
Albacete Elo 1,445.5

Title 0.0%

Direct drop 72.5%

Exp. finish 19.5

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sat 31 Oct
14:00

Real Sociedad II v Girona

H 30.7% · D 21.1% · A 48.2%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
16:15

SD Eibar v Almería

H 39.9% · D 21.5% · A 38.6%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
18:30

Celta Fortuna v Córdoba

H 42.1% · D 21.4% · A 36.5%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
21:00

Albacete v Sabadell

H 35.4% · D 21.4% · A 43.2%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
14:00

Eldense v Granada

H 39.5% · D 21.5% · A 39.0%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
16:15

Ceuta v Sporting Gijón

H 34.5% · D 21.4% · A 44.2%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
18:30

Burgos v Castellón

H 39.4% · D 21.5% · A 39.2%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
21:00

Tenerife v FC Andorra

H 43.8% · D 21.4% · A 34.8%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
16:15

Real Oviedo v Las Palmas

H 48.2% · D 21.1% · A 30.8%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
18:30

Real Valladolid v Leganés

H 44.8% · D 21.3% · A 33.9%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
21:00

Mallorca v Cádiz

H 56.2% · D 20.0% · A 23.8%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
20:30

Castellón v SD Eibar

H 48.6% · D 21.0% · A 30.3%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 341 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

Correction · Matchday 11
Mon 26 Oct

Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1056 results

#1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 Burgos
Matchday 11
Mon 26 Oct

Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1056 results

#1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 Burgos
Correction · Matchday 11
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1055 results

#1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 SD Eibar
Matchday 11
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Castellón · 1,609.7 Elo · 1055 results

#1 Castellón · #2 Almería · #3 SD Eibar
Matchday 11
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Almería · 1,602.3 Elo · 1054 results

#1 Almería · #2 Castellón · #3 SD Eibar
Matchday 11
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Almería · 1,602.3 Elo · 1052 results

#1 Almería · #2 Castellón · #3 SD Eibar
Correction · Matchday 11
Sat 24 Oct

Leader Almería · 1,602.3 Elo · 1051 results

#1 Almería · #2 Castellón · #3 SD Eibar
Matchday 11
Sat 24 Oct

Leader Almería · 1,602.3 Elo · 1051 results

#1 Almería · #2 Castellón · #3 SD Eibar

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Granada: the table has them 6 places higher than Volt.

Rating ahead

Las Palmas: Volt has them 5 places higher than the table.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Castellón
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #1 Form #4 Elo 1,609.7 +16.3 last 5 WDLWW

65.3 GV

#1 26 pts

#4 WDLWW
1,609.7 +16.3
#2
Almería
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,602.3 +32.3 last 5 WWWWD

64.3 GV

#2 25 pts

#1 WWWWD
1,602.3 +32.3
#3
Burgos
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #6 Form #7 Elo 1,570.6 +0.7 last 5 WLLWW

60.0 GV

#6 20 pts

#7 WLLWW
1,570.6 +0.7
#4
SD Eibar
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #3 Form #12 Elo 1,567.7 −13.2 last 5 WWLDL

59.6 GV

#3 22 pts

#12 WWLDL
1,567.7 −13.2
#5
Real Oviedo
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

Table #9 Form #5 Elo 1,557.0 +18.5 last 5 WLWWD

58.1 GV

#9 18 pts

#5 WLWWD
1,557.0 +18.5
#6
Girona
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #4 Form #3 Elo 1,546.8 +28.7 last 5 WDDWW

56.7 GV

#4 21 pts

#3 WDDWW
1,546.8 +28.7
#7
Mallorca
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #7 Form #14 Elo 1,534.1 +3.9 last 5 LDWDD

54.9 GV

#7 19 pts

#14 LDWDD
1,534.1 +3.9
#8
Sabadell
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #10 Form #15 Elo 1,520.1 −3.5 last 5 DDWLD

52.9 GV

#10 17 pts

#15 DDWLD
1,520.1 −3.5
#9
Las Palmas
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #14 Form #19 Elo 1,519.1 −29.3 last 5 LDLLW

52.7 GV

#14 14 pts

#19 LDLLW
1,519.1 −29.3
#10
Sporting Gijón
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #8 Form #9 Elo 1,518.6 +3.3 last 5 LWWWL

52.7 GV

#8 19 pts

#9 LWWWL
1,518.6 +3.3
#11
Granada
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #5 Form #2 Elo 1,511.3 +28.9 last 5 LWWWW

51.6 GV

#5 20 pts

#2 LWWWW
1,511.3 +28.9
#12
Córdoba
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #11 Form #8 Elo 1,494.9 +12.6 last 5 LWLWW

49.3 GV

#11 15 pts

#8 LWLWW
1,494.9 +12.6
#13
Celta Fortuna
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #16 Form #16 Elo 1,479.9 −10.6 last 5 DLWDL

47.1 GV

#16 12 pts

#16 DLWDL
1,479.9 −10.6
#14
Eldense
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #13 Form #6 Elo 1,473.2 +17.7 last 5 LWWWL

46.1 GV

#13 14 pts

#6 LWWWL
1,473.2 +17.7
#15
Tenerife
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #12 Form #17 Elo 1,473.2 −7.2 last 5 DLDDD

46.1 GV

#12 14 pts

#17 DLDDD
1,473.2 −7.2
#16
FC Andorra
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #19 Form #13 Elo 1,473.1 +7.6 last 5 WDWLL

46.1 GV

#19 10 pts

#13 WDWLL
1,473.1 +7.6
#17
Real Valladolid
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #15 Form #10 Elo 1,451.4 +11.1 last 5 WDWLL

43.1 GV

#15 12 pts

#10 WDWLL
1,451.4 +11.1
#18
Albacete
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

Table #22 Form #20 Elo 1,445.5 −26.2 last 5 LLLLW

42.2 GV

#22 4 pts

#20 LLLLW
1,445.5 −26.2
#19
Leganés
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #17 Form #21 Elo 1,443.0 −42.5 last 5 LLLLD

41.9 GV

#17 12 pts

#21 LLLLD
1,443.0 −42.5
#20
Ceuta
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #21 Form #18 Elo 1,435.5 −13.6 last 5 WDLLL

40.8 GV

#21 5 pts

#18 WDLLL
1,435.5 −13.6
#21
Real Sociedad II
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #20 Form #22 Elo 1,428.3 −49.5 last 5 LLLLL

39.8 GV

#20 8 pts

#22 LLLLL
1,428.3 −49.5
#22
Cádiz
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #18 Form #11 Elo 1,424.9 +13.8 last 5 DWLLW

39.4 GV

#18 10 pts

#11 DWLLW
1,424.9 +13.8

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 1056 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

La Liga 2

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.