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Switzerland

Super League

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 12 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 16.7%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Expected finish
  1. #1
    Lugano Elo 1,648.3
    Title 88.2%
    Exp. finish 1.1
  2. #2
    Young Boys Elo 1,603.5
    Title 9.2%
    Exp. finish 2.3
  3. #3
    Sion Elo 1,584.2
    Title 2.5%
    Exp. finish 3.1
  4. #4
    Zürich Elo 1,460.6
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 6.4
  5. #5
    Servette Elo 1,538.5
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 5.4
  6. #6
    St. Gallen Elo 1,546.1
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 5.4
  7. #7
    Basel Elo 1,497.7
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 6.9
  8. #8
    Luzern Elo 1,495.7
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 7.8
  9. #9
    Thun Elo 1,494.8
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 8.7
  10. #10
    Vaduz Elo 1,467.7
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 9.3
  11. #11
    Grasshopper Elo 1,409.7
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 10.4
  12. #12
    Lausanne Sport Elo 1,406.5
    Title 0.0%
    Exp. finish 11.2

Competition-specific qualification and direct-drop rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

St. Gallen v Servette

H 47.4% · D 16.5% · A 36.0%

H D A

Grasshopper v Vaduz

H 39.5% · D 16.6% · A 43.8%

H D A

Luzern v Sion

H 35.9% · D 16.5% · A 47.5%

H D A

Young Boys v Zürich

H 63.1% · D 14.9% · A 22.0%

H D A

Lugano v Basel

H 63.9% · D 14.8% · A 21.3%

H D A

Lausanne Sport v Thun

H 36.0% · D 16.5% · A 47.5%

H D A

Vaduz v Sion

H 32.8% · D 16.3% · A 50.9%

H D A

Luzern v Young Boys

H 33.7% · D 16.4% · A 49.9%

H D A

Grasshopper v Lausanne Sport

H 46.9% · D 16.6% · A 36.6%

H D A

St. Gallen v Lugano

H 34.4% · D 16.4% · A 49.2%

H D A

Thun v Basel

H 46.1% · D 16.6% · A 37.3%

H D A

Servette v Zürich

H 55.8% · D 15.9% · A 28.3%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 66 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Lugano · 1,648.3 Elo · 522 results

    #1 Lugano · #2 Young Boys · #3 Sion

  2. Matchday 11

    Leader Lugano · 1,648.3 Elo · 522 results

    #1 Lugano · #2 Young Boys · #3 Sion

  3. Matchday 11

    Leader Lugano · 1,648.3 Elo · 521 results

    #1 Lugano · #2 Young Boys · #3 Sion

  4. Matchday 11

    Leader Lugano · 1,648.3 Elo · 520 results

    #1 Lugano · #2 Young Boys · #3 Sion

  5. Correction · Matchday 11

    Leader Lugano · 1,641.1 Elo · 519 results

    #1 Lugano · #2 Young Boys · #3 Sion

  6. Matchday 11

    Leader Lugano · 1,641.1 Elo · 519 results

    #1 Lugano · #2 Young Boys · #3 Sion

  7. Matchday 11

    Leader Lugano · 1,641.1 Elo · 518 results

    #1 Lugano · #2 Young Boys · #3 Sion

  8. Matchday 11

    Leader Lugano · 1,641.1 Elo · 517 results

    #1 Lugano · #2 Young Boys · #3 Sion

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Zürich: the table has them 6 places higher than Volt.

Rating ahead

St. Gallen: Volt has them 2 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    Lugano

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,648.3 +31.7 last 5 DWWWW
    70.1 GV
  2. #2
    Young Boys

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #3 Elo 1,603.5 +24.3 last 5 DDWWW
    64.5 GV
  3. #3
    Sion

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #5 Elo 1,584.2 +8.0 last 5 WWDLW
    61.9 GV
  4. #4
    St. Gallen

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #6 Form #7 Elo 1,546.1 −15.3 last 5 LLWWL
    56.6 GV
  5. #5
    Servette

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #5 Form #2 Elo 1,538.5 +38.9 last 5 WWLWW
    55.5 GV
  6. #6
    Basel

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #7 Form #9 Elo 1,497.7 −28.8 last 5 LWLLD
    49.7 GV
  7. #7
    Luzern

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #8 Form #8 Elo 1,495.7 −20.2 last 5 DLWLL
    49.4 GV
  8. #8
    Thun

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #9 Form #11 Elo 1,494.8 −39.3 last 5 LLWLL
    49.3 GV
  9. #9
    Vaduz

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #10 Form #6 Elo 1,467.7 −3.5 last 5 WLLWL
    45.4 GV
  10. #10
    Zürich

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #4 Form #4 Elo 1,460.6 +41.5 last 5 DWDWW
    44.4 GV
  11. #11
    Grasshopper

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #11 Form #10 Elo 1,409.7 −9.2 last 5 WLLLD
    37.3 GV
  12. #12
    Lausanne Sport

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #12 Form #12 Elo 1,406.5 −37.8 last 5 LLLLL
    36.9 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 522 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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