Turkey

Super Lig

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 17.3%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Galatasaray Elo 1,682.5

Title 54.6%

Europe 95.8%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.9
#2
Amed SK Elo 1,553.3

Title 5.0%

Europe 47.8%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 4.9
#3
Trabzonspor Elo 1,623.5

Title 19.2%

Europe 81.4%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.1
#4
Beşiktaş Elo 1,592.7

Title 7.6%

Europe 59.4%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 4.3
#5
Fenerbahçe Elo 1,644.8

Title 12.6%

Europe 72.3%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.6
#6
Kasımpaşa Elo 1,514.0

Title 0.3%

Europe 12.0%

Direct drop 1.0%

Exp. finish 8.0
#7
Kocaelispor Elo 1,493.1

Title 0.1%

Europe 5.6%

Direct drop 2.3%

Exp. finish 9.3
#8
Erzurumspor FK Elo 1,510.9

Title 0.1%

Europe 5.5%

Direct drop 3.0%

Exp. finish 9.5
#9
Çorum FK Elo 1,512.1

Title 0.1%

Europe 4.6%

Direct drop 3.5%

Exp. finish 9.5
#10
Göztepe Elo 1,538.1

Title 0.1%

Europe 6.3%

Direct drop 2.6%

Exp. finish 9.1
#11
Alanyaspor Elo 1,485.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.6%

Direct drop 9.1%

Exp. finish 11.3
#12
İstanbul Başakşehir Elo 1,546.3

Title 0.1%

Europe 6.9%

Direct drop 2.1%

Exp. finish 8.9
#13
Rizespor Elo 1,479.7

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.6%

Direct drop 16.4%

Exp. finish 12.4
#14
Konyaspor Elo 1,462.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 32.8%

Exp. finish 13.9
#15
Gaziantep F.K. Elo 1,432.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 51.2%

Exp. finish 15.0
#16
Gençlerbirliği Elo 1,447.1

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.2%

Direct drop 35.6%

Exp. finish 14.1
#17
Samsunspor Elo 1,468.1

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 51.5%

Exp. finish 15.1
#18
Eyüpspor Elo 1,401.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 88.9%

Exp. finish 17.2

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sat 31 Oct
11:30

Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK

H 46.0% · D 17.2% · A 36.8%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
14:00

Kocaelispor v Rizespor

H 47.8% · D 17.1% · A 35.1%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
17:00

Fenerbahçe v Göztepe

H 58.7% · D 16.1% · A 25.2%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
11:30

Amed SK v Eyüpspor

H 63.6% · D 15.3% · A 21.1%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
14:00

İstanbul Başakşehir v Samsunspor

H 55.4% · D 16.5% · A 28.1%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
14:00

Trabzonspor v Gaziantep F.K.

H 67.6% · D 14.5% · A 17.9%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
17:00

Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş

H 36.8% · D 17.2% · A 46.0%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
18:00

Gençlerbirliği v Alanyaspor

H 41.6% · D 17.3% · A 41.2%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
18:00

Gaziantep F.K. v Kasımpaşa

H 36.5% · D 17.2% · A 46.3%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
11:30

Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor

H 35.3% · D 17.1% · A 47.6%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
14:00

Samsunspor v Konyaspor

H 46.8% · D 17.2% · A 36.0%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
17:00

Galatasaray v Amed SK

H 61.2% · D 15.7% · A 23.1%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 224 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

Samsunspor +1 place

Biggest faller

Konyaspor -1 place

Matchday 10
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Galatasaray · 1,682.5 Elo · 729 results

#1 Galatasaray · #2 Fenerbahçe · #3 Trabzonspor
Correction · Matchday 9
Mon 26 Oct

Leader Galatasaray · 1,674.2 Elo · 728 results

#1 Galatasaray · #2 Fenerbahçe · #3 Trabzonspor
Matchday 9
Mon 26 Oct

Leader Galatasaray · 1,674.2 Elo · 728 results

#1 Galatasaray · #2 Fenerbahçe · #3 Trabzonspor
Matchday 9
Mon 26 Oct

Leader Galatasaray · 1,665.7 Elo · 727 results

#1 Galatasaray · #2 Fenerbahçe · #3 Trabzonspor
Correction · Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Galatasaray · 1,665.7 Elo · 725 results

#1 Galatasaray · #2 Fenerbahçe · #3 Trabzonspor
Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Galatasaray · 1,665.7 Elo · 725 results

#1 Galatasaray · #2 Fenerbahçe · #3 Trabzonspor
Matchday 9
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Galatasaray · 1,665.7 Elo · 724 results

#1 Galatasaray · #2 Fenerbahçe · #3 Trabzonspor
Correction · Matchday 9
Sat 24 Oct

Leader Galatasaray · 1,665.7 Elo · 723 results

#1 Galatasaray · #2 Fenerbahçe · #3 Trabzonspor

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

İstanbul Başakşehir: Volt has them 6 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Kocaelispor: the table has them 4 places higher than Volt.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Galatasaray
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #3 Elo 1,682.5 +11.6 last 5 LWWWW

74.1 GV

#1 22 pts

#3 LWWWW
1,682.5 +11.6
#2
Fenerbahçe
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #5 Form #5 Elo 1,644.8 +13.0 last 5 DWWWL

69.7 GV

#5 16 pts

#5 DWWWL
1,644.8 +13.0
#3
Trabzonspor
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #3 Form #2 Elo 1,623.5 +34.2 last 5 LWWWW

67.1 GV

#3 19 pts

#2 LWWWW
1,623.5 +34.2
#4
Beşiktaş
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #4 Form #9 Elo 1,592.7 +3.6 last 5 WLWLW

63.0 GV

#4 18 pts

#9 WLWLW
1,592.7 +3.6
#5
Amed SK
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,553.3 +41.9 last 5 WWDWW

57.6 GV

#2 20 pts

#1 WWDWW
1,553.3 +41.9
#6
İstanbul Başakşehir
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #12 Form #10 Elo 1,546.3 −10.7 last 5 LWDWL

56.6 GV

#12 11 pts

#10 LWDWL
1,546.3 −10.7
#7
Göztepe
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #10 Form #4 Elo 1,538.1 +34.6 last 5 DDWWW

55.5 GV

#10 12 pts

#4 DDWWW
1,538.1 +34.6
#8
Kasımpaşa
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #6 Form #6 Elo 1,514.0 +23.1 last 5 WDLWW

52.0 GV

#6 16 pts

#6 WDLWW
1,514.0 +23.1
#9
Çorum FK
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #9 Form #8 Elo 1,512.1 +17.8 last 5 WLWWL

51.7 GV

#9 13 pts

#8 WLWWL
1,512.1 +17.8
#10
Erzurumspor FK
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #8 Form #7 Elo 1,510.9 +23.3 last 5 LWDWW

51.6 GV

#8 14 pts

#7 LWDWW
1,510.9 +23.3
#11
Kocaelispor
The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #7 Form #11 Elo 1,493.1 +0.7 last 5 LWLLW

49.0 GV

#7 15 pts

#11 LWLLW
1,493.1 +0.7
#12
Alanyaspor
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #11 Form #12 Elo 1,485.4 −9.7 last 5 DWDLL

47.9 GV

#11 12 pts

#12 DWDLL
1,485.4 −9.7
#13
Rizespor
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #13 Form #14 Elo 1,479.7 −12.6 last 5 WDLLL

47.1 GV

#13 10 pts

#14 WDLLL
1,479.7 −12.6
#14
Samsunspor
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #17 Form #17 Elo 1,468.1 −60.9 last 5 LLLLL

45.4 GV

#17 4 pts

#17 LLLLL
1,468.1 −60.9
#15
Konyaspor
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #14 Form #13 Elo 1,462.4 −0.8 last 5 DDLWL

44.6 GV

#14 8 pts

#13 DDLWL
1,462.4 −0.8
#16
Gençlerbirliği
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #16 Form #15 Elo 1,447.1 −37.1 last 5 LLDLL

42.5 GV

#16 8 pts

#15 LLDLL
1,447.1 −37.1
#17
Gaziantep F.K.
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #15 Form #16 Elo 1,432.6 −39.3 last 5 DLLLL

40.4 GV

#15 8 pts

#16 DLLLL
1,432.6 −39.3
#18
Eyüpspor
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #18 Form #18 Elo 1,401.2 −50.1 last 5 LLLLL

36.2 GV

#18 3 pts

#18 LLLLL
1,401.2 −50.1

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 729 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Super Lig

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.