USA

Major League Soccer

Season 2026 2025 2024

Power Paths 30 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 26.5%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Nashville SC Elo 1,638.2

Title 100.0%

Exp. finish 1.0
#2
Vancouver Whitecaps Elo 1,591.4

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 2.4
#3
New England Elo 1,531.4

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.3
#4
Inter Miami Elo 1,600.1

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.8
#5
Dallas Elo 1,552.3

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 5.0
#6
Chicago Fire Elo 1,538.9

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 6.8
#7
St. Louis City Elo 1,527.9

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 7.6
#8
Houston Dynamo Elo 1,520.3

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 8.1
#9
Charlotte Elo 1,535.6

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 8.8
#10
SJ Earthquakes Elo 1,498.4

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 9.8
#11
Los Angeles FC Elo 1,546.2

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 10.8
#12
Philadelphia Union Elo 1,574.8

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 10.8
#13
Colorado Rapids Elo 1,481.4

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 15.6
#14
Seattle Sounders Elo 1,506.3

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 15.8
#15
Cincinnati Elo 1,515.5

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 16.0
#16
Orlando City Elo 1,516.6

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 16.1
#17
Real Salt Lake Elo 1,484.8

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 16.5
#18
Columbus Crew Elo 1,520.7

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 17.2
#19
LA Galaxy Elo 1,488.1

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 18.4
#20
Portland Timbers Elo 1,479.3

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 19.6
#21
Toronto Elo 1,471.0

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 21.7
#22
New York RB Elo 1,450.5

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 22.1
#23
New York City Elo 1,501.2

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 20.8
#24
Minnesota United Elo 1,486.2

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 22.7
#25
San Diego Elo 1,483.3

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 24.7
#26
Austin Elo 1,441.7

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 26.1
#27
DC United Elo 1,398.1

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 26.8
#28
Atlanta United Elo 1,403.0

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 27.7
#29
CF Montréal Elo 1,370.9

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 29.1
#30
Sporting KC Elo 1,345.9

Title 0.0%

Exp. finish 29.9

Competition-specific qualification and direct-drop rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sat 31 Oct
18:00

Charlotte v Orlando City

H 43.1% · D 26.2% · A 30.7%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
19:00

Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union

H 34.7% · D 26.4% · A 38.8%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
19:00

Columbus Crew v DC United

H 54.3% · D 24.5% · A 21.3%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
19:00

New York City v CF Montréal

H 55.1% · D 24.3% · A 20.7%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
20:00

Sporting KC v Dallas

H 21.0% · D 24.4% · A 54.7%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
20:00

St. Louis City v San Diego

H 45.9% · D 25.9% · A 28.2%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
22:00

LA Galaxy v Austin

H 46.1% · D 25.9% · A 28.0%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
22:00

SJ Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake

H 42.5% · D 26.2% · A 31.2%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
02:30

Colorado Rapids v Chicago Fire

H 34.9% · D 26.4% · A 38.6%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
21:30

Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders

H 50.3% · D 25.2% · A 24.5%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
22:30

Nashville SC v New York RB

H 60.9% · D 22.7% · A 16.4%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
22:30

Atlanta United v Toronto

H 33.8% · D 26.4% · A 39.8%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 30 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

Colorado Rapids +1.7 Elo

Biggest faller

SJ Earthquakes −1.7 Elo

Regular Season
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Nashville SC · 1,638.2 Elo · 1525 results

#1 Nashville SC · #2 Inter Miami · #3 Vancouver Whitecaps
Regular Season
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Nashville SC · 1,638.2 Elo · 1524 results

#1 Nashville SC · #2 Inter Miami · #3 Vancouver Whitecaps
Regular Season
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Nashville SC · 1,638.2 Elo · 1522 results

#1 Nashville SC · #2 Inter Miami · #3 Vancouver Whitecaps
Regular Season
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Nashville SC · 1,638.2 Elo · 1519 results

#1 Nashville SC · #2 Inter Miami · #3 Vancouver Whitecaps
Regular Season
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Nashville SC · 1,641.3 Elo · 1516 results

#1 Nashville SC · #2 Inter Miami · #3 Vancouver Whitecaps
Regular Season
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Nashville SC · 1,641.3 Elo · 1515 results

#1 Nashville SC · #2 Inter Miami · #3 Vancouver Whitecaps
Regular Season
Thu 29 Oct

Leader Nashville SC · 1,641.3 Elo · 1514 results

#1 Nashville SC · #2 Inter Miami · #3 Vancouver Whitecaps
Correction · Regular Season
Mon 26 Oct

Leader Nashville SC · 1,641.3 Elo · 1511 results

#1 Nashville SC · #2 Inter Miami · #3 Vancouver Whitecaps

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Colorado Rapids: the table has them 9 places higher than Volt.

Rating ahead

Philadelphia Union: Volt has them 8 places higher than the table.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Nashville SC
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #3 Elo 1,638.2 +14.0 last 5 WWDWD

68.9 GV

#1 71 pts

#3 WWDWD
1,638.2 +14.0
#2
Inter Miami
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #4 Form #4 Elo 1,600.1 +0.9 last 5 WWWLD

64.0 GV

#4 56 pts

#4 WWWLD
1,600.1 +0.9
#3
Vancouver Whitecaps
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #2 Form #9 Elo 1,591.4 +4.2 last 5 DDWLW

62.9 GV

#2 58 pts

#9 DDWLW
1,591.4 +4.2
#4
Philadelphia Union
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #12 Form #10 Elo 1,574.8 +6.3 last 5 WWDLD

60.6 GV

#12 47 pts

#10 WWDLD
1,574.8 +6.3
#5
Dallas
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #5 Form #14 Elo 1,552.3 −6.9 last 5 LWDWL

57.5 GV

#5 54 pts

#14 LWDWL
1,552.3 −6.9
#6
Los Angeles FC
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #11 Form #19 Elo 1,546.2 −3.9 last 5 LDWDD

56.6 GV

#11 47 pts

#19 LDWDD
1,546.2 −3.9
#7
Chicago Fire
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #6 Form #18 Elo 1,538.9 −9.6 last 5 WLLWD

55.6 GV

#6 52 pts

#18 WLLWD
1,538.9 −9.6
#8
Charlotte
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #9 Form #13 Elo 1,535.6 −5.9 last 5 WLDLW

55.1 GV

#9 50 pts

#13 WLDLW
1,535.6 −5.9
#9
New England
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #3 Form #2 Elo 1,531.4 +27.3 last 5 LWWWW

54.5 GV

#3 58 pts

#2 LWWWW
1,531.4 +27.3
#10
St. Louis City
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #7 Form #23 Elo 1,527.9 −31.7 last 5 WDLLL

54.0 GV

#7 51 pts

#23 WDLLL
1,527.9 −31.7
#11
Columbus Crew
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #18 Form #1 Elo 1,520.7 +47.1 last 5 LWWWW

53.0 GV

#18 41 pts

#1 LWWWW
1,520.7 +47.1
#12
Houston Dynamo
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #8 Form #15 Elo 1,520.3 +10.0 last 5 DDDDW

52.9 GV

#8 51 pts

#15 DDDDW
1,520.3 +10.0
#13
Orlando City
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #16 Form #7 Elo 1,516.6 +17.4 last 5 WDWDD

52.4 GV

#16 43 pts

#7 WDWDD
1,516.6 +17.4
#14
Cincinnati
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #15 Form #17 Elo 1,515.5 −5.6 last 5 LLWWD

52.2 GV

#15 43 pts

#17 LLWWD
1,515.5 −5.6
#15
Seattle Sounders
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #14 Form #21 Elo 1,506.3 −9.1 last 5 WLDDL

50.9 GV

#14 43 pts

#21 WLDDL
1,506.3 −9.1
#16
New York City
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #23 Form #22 Elo 1,501.2 −6.3 last 5 LLDDW

50.2 GV

#23 38 pts

#22 LLDDW
1,501.2 −6.3
#17
SJ Earthquakes
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #10 Form #24 Elo 1,498.4 −10.3 last 5 DDDLD

49.8 GV

#10 49 pts

#24 DDDLD
1,498.4 −10.3
#18
LA Galaxy
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #19 Form #12 Elo 1,488.1 +11.3 last 5 WLWDD

48.3 GV

#19 41 pts

#12 WLWDD
1,488.1 +11.3
#19
Minnesota United
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #24 Form #8 Elo 1,486.2 +22.2 last 5 DDWDW

48.0 GV

#24 38 pts

#8 DDWDW
1,486.2 +22.2
#20
Real Salt Lake
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #17 Form #5 Elo 1,484.8 +32.8 last 5 LDWWW

47.8 GV

#17 42 pts

#5 LDWWW
1,484.8 +32.8
#21
San Diego
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #25 Form #26 Elo 1,483.3 −23.5 last 5 LDDDL

47.6 GV

#25 35 pts

#26 LDDDL
1,483.3 −23.5
#22
Colorado Rapids
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #13 Form #16 Elo 1,481.4 +13.8 last 5 DDDWD

47.3 GV

#13 43 pts

#16 DDDWD
1,481.4 +13.8
#23
Portland Timbers
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #20 Form #11 Elo 1,479.3 +11.5 last 5 DLDWW

47.0 GV

#20 40 pts

#11 DLDWW
1,479.3 +11.5
#24
Toronto
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #21 Form #6 Elo 1,471.0 +18.2 last 5 WDWLW

45.8 GV

#21 39 pts

#6 WDWLW
1,471.0 +18.2
#25
New York RB
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #22 Form #20 Elo 1,450.5 +1.0 last 5 WLLWL

42.9 GV

#22 39 pts

#20 WLLWL
1,450.5 +1.0
#26
Austin
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #26 Form #27 Elo 1,441.7 −26.6 last 5 LLLWL

41.7 GV

#26 34 pts

#27 LLLWL
1,441.7 −26.6
#27
Atlanta United
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #28 Form #25 Elo 1,403.0 −17.7 last 5 LWLLL

36.4 GV

#28 30 pts

#25 LWLLL
1,403.0 −17.7
#28
DC United
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #27 Form #28 Elo 1,398.1 −24.4 last 5 WLLLL

35.7 GV

#27 33 pts

#28 WLLLL
1,398.1 −24.4
#29
CF Montréal
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #29 Form #30 Elo 1,370.9 −30.5 last 5 LLDLL

32.2 GV

#29 25 pts

#30 LLDLL
1,370.9 −30.5
#30
Sporting KC
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #30 Form #29 Elo 1,345.9 −30.0 last 5 DLLLL

29.2 GV

#30 22 pts

#29 DLLLL
1,345.9 −30.0

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 1525 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Major League Soccer

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.