England

Premier League

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 20 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 28.7%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Manchester City Elo 1,660.0

Title 44.9%

Europe 99.0%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.8
#2
Arsenal Elo 1,669.8

Title 49.4%

Europe 99.2%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.7
#3
Brighton & Hove Albion Elo 1,568.8

Title 2.8%

Europe 70.6%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 4.8
#4
Liverpool Elo 1,576.4

Title 1.9%

Europe 66.1%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 5.1
#5
Chelsea Elo 1,521.7

Title 0.2%

Europe 27.1%

Direct drop 2.1%

Exp. finish 8.4
#6
Brentford Elo 1,532.6

Title 0.1%

Europe 22.2%

Direct drop 2.9%

Exp. finish 8.9
#7
Leeds United Elo 1,522.7

Title 0.2%

Europe 19.3%

Direct drop 3.6%

Exp. finish 9.4
#8
Newcastle United Elo 1,502.7

Title 0.0%

Europe 9.8%

Direct drop 7.9%

Exp. finish 11.1
#9
Aston Villa Elo 1,547.3

Title 0.3%

Europe 30.7%

Direct drop 1.8%

Exp. finish 8.1
#10
Hull City Elo 1,503.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 9.0%

Direct drop 8.5%

Exp. finish 11.3
#11
Everton Elo 1,495.2

Title 0.1%

Europe 6.8%

Direct drop 11.0%

Exp. finish 12.0
#12
Ipswich Town Elo 1,421.5

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.8%

Direct drop 42.5%

Exp. finish 15.9
#13
AFC Bournemouth Elo 1,544.1

Title 0.1%

Europe 19.4%

Direct drop 3.3%

Exp. finish 9.3
#14
Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1,461.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 2.2%

Direct drop 26.9%

Exp. finish 14.5
#15
Fulham Elo 1,488.0

Title 0.0%

Europe 3.1%

Direct drop 21.0%

Exp. finish 13.7
#16
Manchester United Elo 1,538.7

Title 0.0%

Europe 10.5%

Direct drop 8.2%

Exp. finish 11.1
#17
Crystal Palace Elo 1,454.7

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.8%

Direct drop 44.0%

Exp. finish 16.0
#18
Nottingham Forest Elo 1,478.8

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.6%

Direct drop 34.1%

Exp. finish 15.2
#19
Coventry City Elo 1,464.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.0%

Direct drop 41.4%

Exp. finish 15.8
#20
Sunderland Elo 1,471.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.9%

Direct drop 40.9%

Exp. finish 15.8

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sat 31 Oct
13:30

Chelsea v Manchester United

H 38.0% · D 28.7% · A 33.3%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
16:00

Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion

H 49.4% · D 27.3% · A 23.2%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
16:00

Hull City v Ipswich Town

H 48.4% · D 27.5% · A 24.0%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
16:00

Coventry City v Sunderland

H 39.1% · D 28.7% · A 32.3%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
16:00

Brentford v Nottingham Forest

H 45.5% · D 28.0% · A 26.5%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
16:00

AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United

H 42.0% · D 28.4% · A 29.5%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
18:30

Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace

H 40.5% · D 28.6% · A 30.9%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
21:00

Aston Villa v Fulham

H 46.1% · D 27.9% · A 26.0%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
17:30

Liverpool v Arsenal

H 30.3% · D 28.5% · A 41.2%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
21:00

Newcastle United v Everton

H 40.6% · D 28.6% · A 30.9%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
21:00

Everton v Coventry City

H 43.0% · D 28.3% · A 28.6%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
13:30

Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur

H 46.3% · D 27.9% · A 25.8%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 300 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

Correction · Matchday 8
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 840 results

#1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Liverpool
Matchday 8
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 840 results

#1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Liverpool
Matchday 8
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 839 results

#1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Liverpool
Matchday 8
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 836 results

#1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion
Correction · Matchday 8
Sat 24 Oct

Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 835 results

#1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion
Matchday 8
Sat 24 Oct

Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 835 results

#1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion
Matchday 8
Sat 24 Oct

Leader Arsenal · 1,669.8 Elo · 834 results

#1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion
Matchday 8
Sat 24 Oct

Leader Arsenal · 1,663.9 Elo · 832 results

#1 Arsenal · #2 Manchester City · #3 Brighton & Hove Albion

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Manchester United: Volt has them 9 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Ipswich Town: the table has them 8 places higher than Volt.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Arsenal
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #2 Form #3 Elo 1,669.8 +9.1 last 5 WLWWW

72.7 GV

#2 21 pts

#3 WLWWW
1,669.8 +9.1
#2
Manchester City
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #2 Elo 1,660.0 +17.5 last 5 WWWWL

71.5 GV

#1 21 pts

#2 WWWWL
1,660.0 +17.5
#3
Liverpool
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #4 Form #5 Elo 1,576.4 +17.9 last 5 DWLWW

60.8 GV

#4 15 pts

#5 DWLWW
1,576.4 +17.9
#4
Brighton & Hove Albion
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #3 Form #1 Elo 1,568.8 +42.3 last 5 WWWWL

59.8 GV

#3 16 pts

#1 WWWWL
1,568.8 +42.3
#5
Aston Villa
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #9 Form #4 Elo 1,547.3 +19.5 last 5 LWDWW

56.8 GV

#9 11 pts

#4 LWDWW
1,547.3 +19.5
#6
AFC Bournemouth
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #13 Form #9 Elo 1,544.1 −0.2 last 5 DLLWW

56.3 GV

#13 9 pts

#9 DLLWW
1,544.1 −0.2
#7
Manchester United
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #16 Form #19 Elo 1,538.7 −31.2 last 5 LDDDL

55.5 GV

#16 7 pts

#19 LDDDL
1,538.7 −31.2
#8
Brentford
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #6 Form #11 Elo 1,532.6 +3.7 last 5 DWDLD

54.7 GV

#6 11 pts

#11 DWDLD
1,532.6 +3.7
#9
Leeds United
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #7 Form #12 Elo 1,522.7 +2.9 last 5 WDLDD

53.3 GV

#7 11 pts

#12 WDLDD
1,522.7 +2.9
#10
Chelsea
The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #5 Form #8 Elo 1,521.7 −2.7 last 5 DLWWL

53.1 GV

#5 13 pts

#8 DLWWL
1,521.7 −2.7
#11
Hull City
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #10 Form #18 Elo 1,503.3 −20.0 last 5 DLDLD

50.5 GV

#10 10 pts

#18 DLDLD
1,503.3 −20.0
#12
Newcastle United
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #8 Form #13 Elo 1,502.7 −13.9 last 5 LWLLW

50.4 GV

#8 11 pts

#13 LWLLW
1,502.7 −13.9
#13
Everton
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #11 Form #15 Elo 1,495.2 −12.6 last 5 DWDLL

49.3 GV

#11 10 pts

#15 DWDLL
1,495.2 −12.6
#14
Fulham
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #15 Form #7 Elo 1,488.0 +15.4 last 5 DDLWW

48.3 GV

#15 8 pts

#7 DDLWW
1,488.0 +15.4
#15
Nottingham Forest
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

Table #18 Form #16 Elo 1,478.8 −19.6 last 5 WLLLD

46.9 GV

#18 6 pts

#16 WLLLD
1,478.8 −19.6
#16
Sunderland
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #20 Form #20 Elo 1,471.2 −35.5 last 5 LLLLD

45.9 GV

#20 5 pts

#20 LLLLD
1,471.2 −35.5
#17
Coventry City
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #19 Form #14 Elo 1,464.3 −13.0 last 5 LWWLL

44.9 GV

#19 6 pts

#14 LWWLL
1,464.3 −13.0
#18
Tottenham Hotspur
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #14 Form #6 Elo 1,461.6 +26.7 last 5 DLDWW

44.5 GV

#14 9 pts

#6 DLDWW
1,461.6 +26.7
#19
Crystal Palace
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #17 Form #17 Elo 1,454.7 −20.8 last 5 LDWLL

43.5 GV

#17 7 pts

#17 LDWLL
1,454.7 −20.8
#20
Ipswich Town
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #12 Form #10 Elo 1,421.5 +14.5 last 5 WLWLD

38.9 GV

#12 10 pts

#10 WLWLD
1,421.5 +14.5

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 840 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Premier League

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.