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2. Bundesliga
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Germany

2. Bundesliga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 29.6%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Hertha BSC Elo 1,578.3
    Title 65.9%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.6
  2. #2
    Nürnberg Elo 1,546.9
    Title 11.2%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 4.1
  3. #3
    Kaiserslautern Elo 1,544.0
    Title 10.1%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 4.1
  4. #4
    VfL Wolfsburg Elo 1,538.2
    Title 6.6%
    Direct drop 0.2%
    Exp. finish 4.9
  5. #5
    Magdeburg Elo 1,515.4
    Title 3.0%
    Direct drop 0.5%
    Exp. finish 6.1
  6. #6
    FC Heidenheim Elo 1,511.0
    Title 1.8%
    Direct drop 1.0%
    Exp. finish 7.0
  7. #7
    St. Pauli Elo 1,510.8
    Title 0.7%
    Direct drop 2.9%
    Exp. finish 8.5
  8. #8
    Osnabrück Elo 1,486.2
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 7.8%
    Exp. finish 10.6
  9. #9
    DSC Arminia Bielefeld Elo 1,482.8
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 7.5%
    Exp. finish 10.4
  10. #10
    Eintracht Braunschweig Elo 1,448.3
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 18.6%
    Exp. finish 12.6
  11. #11
    Energie Cottbus Elo 1,493.4
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 8.0%
    Exp. finish 10.5
  12. #12
    SpVgg Greuther Fürth Elo 1,448.7
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 23.7%
    Exp. finish 13.2
  13. #13
    Holstein Kiel Elo 1,471.3
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 19.4%
    Exp. finish 12.7
  14. #14
    VfL Bochum 1848 Elo 1,471.0
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 21.7%
    Exp. finish 13.0
  15. #15
    Dynamo Dresden Elo 1,465.2
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 23.0%
    Exp. finish 13.2
  16. #16
    Hannover 96 Elo 1,509.8
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 10.2%
    Exp. finish 11.1
  17. #17
    Karlsruher SC Elo 1,452.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 29.9%
    Exp. finish 13.8
  18. #18
    Darmstadt 98 Elo 1,467.9
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 25.5%
    Exp. finish 13.4

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Energie Cottbus v VfL Bochum 1848

H 41.6% · D 29.3% · A 29.1%

H D A

DSC Arminia Bielefeld v Eintracht Braunschweig

H 42.9% · D 29.2% · A 27.9%

H D A

Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC

H 35.8% · D 29.6% · A 34.6%

H D A

Darmstadt 98 v Magdeburg

H 34.4% · D 29.6% · A 35.9%

H D A

VfL Wolfsburg v Osnabrück

H 44.7% · D 28.9% · A 26.3%

H D A

Karlsruher SC v FC Heidenheim

H 33.4% · D 29.6% · A 37.0%

H D A

SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel

H 37.0% · D 29.6% · A 33.4%

H D A

Hannover 96 v Dynamo Dresden

H 44.0% · D 29.0% · A 27.0%

H D A

St. Pauli v Nürnberg

H 35.6% · D 29.6% · A 34.8%

H D A

Eintracht Braunschweig v Energie Cottbus

H 34.7% · D 29.6% · A 35.7%

H D A

Dynamo Dresden v SpVgg Greuther Fürth

H 41.0% · D 29.4% · A 29.6%

H D A

Osnabrück v Kaiserslautern

H 33.4% · D 29.6% · A 37.0%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 225 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 9

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,578.3 Elo · 693 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 Kaiserslautern

  2. Matchday 9

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,578.3 Elo · 693 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 Kaiserslautern

  3. Correction · Matchday 9

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,578.3 Elo · 690 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 Kaiserslautern

  4. Matchday 9

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,578.3 Elo · 690 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 Kaiserslautern

  5. Matchday 9

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,578.3 Elo · 689 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 VfL Wolfsburg

  6. Correction · Matchday 9

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,571.7 Elo · 686 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 VfL Wolfsburg

  7. Matchday 9

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,571.7 Elo · 686 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 VfL Wolfsburg

  8. Correction · Matchday 8

    Leader Hertha BSC · 1,571.7 Elo · 684 results

    #1 Hertha BSC · #2 Nürnberg · #3 VfL Wolfsburg

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Hannover 96: Volt has them 8 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Eintracht Braunschweig: the table has them 8 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Hertha BSC

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,578.3 +31.0 last 5 WWWDW
    61.1 GV
  2. #2
    Nürnberg

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #2 Form #6 Elo 1,546.9 +2.6 last 5 WWDDL
    56.7 GV
  3. #3
    Kaiserslautern

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #3 Elo 1,544.0 +15.7 last 5 LWDWW
    56.3 GV
  4. #4
    VfL Wolfsburg

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #5 Elo 1,538.2 +14.1 last 5 LWDWD
    55.5 GV
  5. #5
    Magdeburg

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #5 Form #2 Elo 1,515.4 +26.7 last 5 WDWLW
    52.2 GV
  6. #6
    FC Heidenheim

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #6 Form #11 Elo 1,511.0 −6.7 last 5 WDDLD
    51.6 GV
  7. #7
    St. Pauli

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #7 Form #4 Elo 1,510.8 +22.3 last 5 WDWDD
    51.6 GV
  8. #8
    Hannover 96

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #16 Form #16 Elo 1,509.8 −30.3 last 5 LWLDL
    51.4 GV
  9. #9
    Energie Cottbus

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #11 Form #10 Elo 1,493.4 +4.3 last 5 WDLDD
    49.0 GV
  10. #10
    Osnabrück

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #8 Form #13 Elo 1,486.2 −10.4 last 5 LDDLW
    48.0 GV
  11. #11
    DSC Arminia Bielefeld

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #9 Form #7 Elo 1,482.8 +5.6 last 5 LDWWL
    47.5 GV
  12. #12
    Holstein Kiel

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #13 Form #12 Elo 1,471.3 −2.7 last 5 LDLDW
    45.9 GV
  13. #13
    VfL Bochum 1848

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #14 Form #18 Elo 1,471.0 −31.0 last 5 DLLLD
    45.8 GV
  14. #14
    Darmstadt 98

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #18 Form #9 Elo 1,467.9 −5.1 last 5 WLWLD
    45.4 GV
  15. #15
    Dynamo Dresden

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #15 Form #14 Elo 1,465.2 −6.9 last 5 DLDWL
    45.0 GV
  16. #16
    Karlsruher SC

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #17 Form #17 Elo 1,452.8 −31.3 last 5 LLLWL
    43.2 GV
  17. #17
    SpVgg Greuther Fürth

    The table ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #12 Form #15 Elo 1,448.7 −4.0 last 5 DDLWL
    42.7 GV
  18. #18
    Eintracht Braunschweig

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #10 Form #8 Elo 1,448.3 +5.9 last 5 DLWLW
    42.6 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 693 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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