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J1 League

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Power Paths 20 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 24.2%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Machida Zelvia Elo 1,611.7
    Title 30.6%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.9
  2. #2
    FC Tokyo Elo 1,585.9
    Title 15.0%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 4.0
  3. #3
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima Elo 1,616.8
    Title 20.6%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 3.5
  4. #4
    Kashiwa Reysol Elo 1,611.7
    Title 17.9%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 3.7
  5. #5
    Vissel Kobe Elo 1,594.1
    Title 8.7%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 4.7
  6. #6
    Kawasaki Frontale Elo 1,563.6
    Title 2.5%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 6.5
  7. #7
    Urawa Reds Elo 1,542.8
    Title 1.0%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 7.7
  8. #8
    Kashima Antlers Elo 1,595.7
    Title 3.3%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 6.1
  9. #9
    Yokohama F. Marinos Elo 1,542.3
    Title 0.4%
    Direct drop 0.4%
    Exp. finish 8.6
  10. #10
    Fagiano Okayama Elo 1,473.1
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 7.1%
    Exp. finish 12.6
  11. #11
    Nagoya Grampus Elo 1,478.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 8.4%
    Exp. finish 12.8
  12. #12
    Cerezo Osaka Elo 1,490.5
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 10.0%
    Exp. finish 13.2
  13. #13
    Shimizu S-Pulse Elo 1,452.5
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 19.1%
    Exp. finish 14.5
  14. #14
    V-Varen Nagasaki Elo 1,481.0
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 12.7%
    Exp. finish 13.6
  15. #15
    Gamba Osaka Elo 1,494.7
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 14.0%
    Exp. finish 13.8
  16. #16
    Kyoto Sanga Elo 1,517.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 9.3%
    Exp. finish 13.0
  17. #17
    Mito Hollyhock Elo 1,460.4
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 37.0%
    Exp. finish 16.1
  18. #18
    Tokyo Verdy Elo 1,436.5
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 59.0%
    Exp. finish 17.4
  19. #19
    Avispa Fukuoka Elo 1,435.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 64.9%
    Exp. finish 17.7
  20. #20
    JEF United Elo 1,449.1
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 58.0%
    Exp. finish 17.4

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Fagiano Okayama v FC Tokyo

H 30.2% · D 23.8% · A 46.0%

H D A

Kyoto Sanga v Shimizu S-Pulse

H 49.6% · D 23.3% · A 27.1%

H D A

Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima

H 26.0% · D 23.2% · A 50.8%

H D A

Vissel Kobe v Nagoya Grampus

H 55.0% · D 22.4% · A 22.5%

H D A

Kashima Antlers v Cerezo Osaka

H 54.0% · D 22.6% · A 23.4%

H D A

Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa Reds

H 50.0% · D 23.3% · A 26.7%

H D A

Yokohama F. Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale

H 40.0% · D 24.1% · A 35.9%

H D A

V-Varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy

H 47.3% · D 23.6% · A 29.1%

H D A

JEF United v Avispa Fukuoka

H 43.8% · D 24.0% · A 32.2%

H D A

Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka

H 55.2% · D 22.4% · A 22.4%

H D A

Shimizu S-Pulse v Tokyo Verdy

H 44.1% · D 23.9% · A 32.0%

H D A

Nagoya Grampus v Kyoto Sanga

H 38.0% · D 24.2% · A 37.8%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 260 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

Nagoya Grampus +1 place

Biggest faller

Fagiano Okayama -1 place

  1. Matchday 12

    Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6472 results

    #1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol

  2. Matchday 12

    Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6470 results

    #1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol

  3. Matchday 12

    Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6468 results

    #1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol

  4. Matchday 12

    Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6467 results

    #1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol

  5. Matchday 12

    Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6466 results

    #1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol

  6. Matchday 12

    Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6464 results

    #1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashima Antlers

  7. Matchday 12

    Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6463 results

    #1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashima Antlers

  8. Matchday 11

    Leader Machida Zelvia · 1,611.0 Elo · 6462 results

    #1 Machida Zelvia · #2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #3 Kashima Antlers

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Kyoto Sanga: Volt has them 6 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Fagiano Okayama: the table has them 5 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #2 Elo 1,616.8 +11.4 last 5 WWWLW
    66.2 GV
  2. #2
    Machida Zelvia

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #4 Elo 1,611.7 +16.0 last 5 LWWWD
    65.5 GV
  3. #3
    Kashiwa Reysol

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #5 Elo 1,611.7 +17.8 last 5 WWLDW
    65.5 GV
  4. #4
    Kashima Antlers

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #8 Form #7 Elo 1,595.7 +1.5 last 5 DWWDL
    63.4 GV
  5. #5
    Vissel Kobe

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #5 Form #10 Elo 1,594.1 −2.9 last 5 WLWLD
    63.2 GV
  6. #6
    FC Tokyo

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,585.9 +37.8 last 5 WWWDW
    62.1 GV
  7. #7
    Kawasaki Frontale

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #6 Elo 1,563.6 +16.5 last 5 DLWWW
    59.1 GV
  8. #8
    Urawa Reds

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #7 Form #3 Elo 1,542.8 +22.0 last 5 WLWWW
    56.1 GV
  9. #9
    Yokohama F. Marinos

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #9 Form #9 Elo 1,542.3 +3.2 last 5 WDDDD
    56.1 GV
  10. #10
    Kyoto Sanga

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #16 Form #14 Elo 1,517.8 −6.0 last 5 WLLDD
    52.6 GV
  11. #11
    Gamba Osaka

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #15 Form #13 Elo 1,494.7 −5.3 last 5 LLDWD
    49.2 GV
  12. #12
    Cerezo Osaka

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #12 Form #15 Elo 1,490.5 −14.1 last 5 DDLDD
    48.6 GV
  13. #13
    V-Varen Nagasaki

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #14 Form #12 Elo 1,481.0 +5.5 last 5 DDLWL
    47.3 GV
  14. #14
    Nagoya Grampus

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #11 Form #8 Elo 1,478.8 +26.4 last 5 LWWDD
    47.0 GV
  15. #15
    Fagiano Okayama

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #10 Form #18 Elo 1,473.1 −26.4 last 5 LLLWL
    46.1 GV
  16. #16
    Mito Hollyhock

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #17 Form #20 Elo 1,460.4 −54.2 last 5 LLLLL
    44.3 GV
  17. #17
    Shimizu S-Pulse

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #13 Form #11 Elo 1,452.5 +1.4 last 5 WWDLL
    43.2 GV
  18. #18
    JEF United

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #20 Form #17 Elo 1,449.1 −12.4 last 5 LDDLD
    42.7 GV
  19. #19
    Tokyo Verdy

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #18 Form #16 Elo 1,436.5 −11.0 last 5 LLLDW
    41.0 GV
  20. #20
    Avispa Fukuoka

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #19 Form #19 Elo 1,435.8 −27.2 last 5 LWLLL
    40.9 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 6472 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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