GolVolt — Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse: preview, line-ups, chances

Today

Ligue 1 Matchday 9

Olympique Marseille

20:45 Sun 1 Nov · your time in 2 days 7 h

Toulouse

Six of the Round · Ligue 1

Pre-match chances

47% Olympique Marseille 26% draw Toulouse 28%

Pre-match result forecast (provider data).

A dot on a form pip marks another competition.

Where to watch: beIN SPORTS en Español Stadium: Stade Vélodrome, Marseille Referee: Hakim Ben El Hadj

What to watch for

Facts from our data worth knowing before kick-off. After the match we check them ✓ / ✗.

What's at stake

Olympique Marseille: a match for Europe

33%after a loss 51%after a win

Chances of Europe: 33% after a defeat, 51% after a win (10,000 simulations of the rest of the season).

Player in form

Casper Tengstedt: 5 goals and 1 assist in 5 league matches

Goals5 xG3.84

Scoring more than his chances suggest (xG 3.8).

Last time

Last meeting, 7 March: Toulouse – Olympique Marseille 0:1

DWWDDW

Olympique Marseille are unbeaten in the last 10 meetings.

Referee

Hakim Ben El Hadj: 4.8 yellow cards per match

This season in this competition: 4 matches, no red card, 1 penalty.

Streak

Toulouse unbeaten in 5 matches

DWDWD

All competitions, friendlies excluded: 2 wins and 3 draws. Last defeat: 3 September, 0:1 against LOSC Lille.

What's at stake

Toulouse: a match for Europe

10%after a loss 20%after a win

Chances of Europe: 10% after a defeat, 20% after a win (10,000 simulations of the rest of the season).

Players to watch

Ligue 1, this season.

Amine Gouiri

Olympique Marseille · forward

5goals 2assists 7.34avg rating

Last match, Le Havre: 1 assist, rating 7.0.

Casper Tengstedt

Toulouse · forward

5goals 1assist 7.25avg rating

Last match, Troyes: rating 6.8.

Who is out

Injuries and suspensions

The list usually arrives about 48 hours before kick-off. There is none for this match yet.

Recent matches

Bar height is the goal difference. Hover or tap a bar for the details.

“This set-up” is Olympique Marseille at home and Toulouse away, as in this match.

Olympique Marseille

at home · 10

5W1D4L2.0scored per match1.4conceded per match

Toulouse

away · 10

4W3D3L2.1scored per match2.2conceded per match

Head to head

40 meetings since 2005. The last 5 below.

Last time · 7 Mar 2026 · Ligue 1 Toulouse 0:1 Olympique Marseille Greenwood 18'

3wins

2 draws3.6 goals per match · both scored in 4 of 5

0wins

Show older (5)

21 Apr 2024Ligue 1 Toulouse2:2Olympique Marseille Nicolaisen 45+2' · Gboho 82' · Onana 38' · Moumbagna 90+6' before our records
17 Sep 2023Ligue 1 Olympique Marseille0:0Toulouse before our records
19 Feb 2023Ligue 1 Toulouse2:3Olympique Marseille Dallinga 3' · Onaiwu 87' · Mbemba 52' · Ünder 59' · Tavares 78' before our records
29 Dec 2022Ligue 1 Olympique Marseille6:1Toulouse Rongier 13' · Nicolaisen 41' (s) · Kolasinac 51' · Payet 61' · Ünder 80' (k) · Tavares 82' · Boomen 66' (k) before our records
8 Feb 2020Ligue 1 Olympique Marseille1:0Toulouse Payet 51' before our records

Expected lineups

For now, the last starting XI: Olympique Marseille (4-2-3-1, last: Le Havre) · Toulouse (4-4-2, last: Troyes).

Official around 19:45, Sun 1 Nov

JLde Lange TWWeah CREgan-Riley NAAguerd EMEmerson TNNnadi PHHøjbjerg AHHarit HAAbdelli IPPaixão AGGouiri GRRestes RMMessali MMMcKenzie RNNicolaisen CTTapé ADDønnum CJCásseres Jr. NSSigur TJJørgensen JRRussell-Rowe CTTengstedt

Olympique MarseilleToulouse

When the provider publishes the expected XI (usually a day before the match), it replaces the last one. A player on the absence list stays on the pitch as a pale, dashed “ghost”.

Coaches

Bruno GénésioOlympique Marseille Jens AskouToulouse

Who wins?

The data provider's forecast, not GolVolt's. It says how often a match like this ends each way.

47%Olympique Marseille

26%draw

28%Toulouse

Out of 20 matches like this, Olympique Marseille win 9, 5 end level and Toulouse win 6.

The forecast leans to Olympique Marseille. By Volt (strength from league results) Olympique Marseille rate higher: 57.5 and 51.4.

Likeliest scores

The five likeliest from the score grid.

1:112%
1:010%
2:19%
2:07%
1:27%

How many goals?

The forecast, and under it what happened in each club's last 10 matches.

2+ goals77% Olympique Marseille 7 of 10 · Toulouse 8 of 10
3+ goals54% Olympique Marseille 5 of 10 · Toulouse 7 of 10
4+ goals32% Olympique Marseille 4 of 10 · Toulouse 4 of 10
5+ goals19% Olympique Marseille 4 of 10 · Toulouse 1 of 10

Goals at both ends

Chance that each side scores: 57%.

What this match changes in the season

European-place chance after each result.

today after a defeat after a draw after a win

Olympique Marseille today 43%

after a defeat: 33%
after a draw: 41%
after a win: 51%

Toulouse today 14%

after a defeat: 10%
after a draw: 13%
after a win: 20%

Olympique Marseille: 18 percentage points of European-place chance between a win and a defeat.

From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. How we count

Pro analysisGolVolt ProPro extends the free match profile with its own goals model, lineup stability and results from similar fixtures. Coverage depends on the available data.

Pro analysis

GolVolt Pro

Pro extends the free match profile with its own goals model, lineup stability and results from similar fixtures. Coverage depends on the available data.

Volt matchup

57.5 51.4