Poland

Ekstraklasa

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 22.6%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
Lech Poznań Elo 1,645.1

Title 71.6%

Europe 98.3%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.5
#2
Górnik Zabrze Elo 1,594.0

Title 13.7%

Europe 83.5%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.0
#3
Pogoń Szczecin Elo 1,568.7

Title 8.6%

Europe 70.0%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 3.8
#4
Legia Warszawa Elo 1,580.0

Title 3.9%

Europe 58.2%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 4.5
#5
Wisła Kraków Elo 1,532.1

Title 1.0%

Europe 28.0%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 6.3
#6
Piast Gliwice Elo 1,521.1

Title 0.4%

Europe 18.9%

Direct drop 0.2%

Exp. finish 7.1
#7
Zagłębie Lubin Elo 1,506.8

Title 0.2%

Europe 8.8%

Direct drop 1.1%

Exp. finish 8.5
#8
Korona Kielce Elo 1,505.9

Title 0.2%

Europe 9.0%

Direct drop 1.4%

Exp. finish 8.5
#9
Katowice Elo 1,529.0

Title 0.3%

Europe 13.8%

Direct drop 0.6%

Exp. finish 7.7
#10
Jagiellonia Białystok Elo 1,528.1

Title 0.1%

Europe 9.0%

Direct drop 1.5%

Exp. finish 8.6
#11
Wisła Płock Elo 1,477.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 1.6%

Direct drop 9.2%

Exp. finish 11.3
#12
Motor Lublin Elo 1,489.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.5%

Direct drop 15.2%

Exp. finish 12.4
#13
Cracovia Kraków Elo 1,455.1

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 31.6%

Exp. finish 13.9
#14
Widzew Lodz Elo 1,478.1

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.3%

Direct drop 20.8%

Exp. finish 12.9
#15
Śląsk Wrocław Elo 1,440.6

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.1%

Direct drop 50.0%

Exp. finish 15.0
#16
Radomiak Radom Elo 1,435.9

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 61.8%

Exp. finish 15.7
#17
Wieczysta Kraków Elo 1,449.0

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 51.3%

Exp. finish 15.1
#18
Raków Częstochowa Elo 1,475.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.0%

Direct drop 55.3%

Exp. finish 15.3

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Sat 31 Oct
12:15

Wisła Płock v Piast Gliwice

H 38.3% · D 22.6% · A 39.1%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
14:45

Wieczysta Kraków v Jagiellonia Białystok

H 34.4% · D 22.5% · A 43.1%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
17:30

Lech Poznań v Wisła Kraków

H 55.8% · D 21.0% · A 23.1%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
20:15

Katowice v Widzew Lodz

H 48.9% · D 22.1% · A 29.0%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
18:00

Zagłębie Lubin v Korona Kielce

H 43.3% · D 22.5% · A 34.2%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
18:00

Radomiak Radom v Śląsk Wrocław

H 42.6% · D 22.6% · A 34.8%

H D A

Mon 2 Nov
20:30

Raków Częstochowa v Pogoń Szczecin

H 32.9% · D 22.4% · A 44.7%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
18:00

Motor Lublin v Wisła Płock

H 44.5% · D 22.4% · A 33.0%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
20:30

Wisła Kraków v Cracovia Kraków

H 51.9% · D 21.7% · A 26.4%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
12:15

Korona Kielce v Radomiak Radom

H 51.1% · D 21.8% · A 27.1%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
14:45

Śląsk Wrocław v Piast Gliwice

H 34.2% · D 22.5% · A 43.2%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
17:30

Górnik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków

H 59.2% · D 20.4% · A 20.4%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 198 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

Legia Warszawa +1.6 Elo

Biggest faller

Górnik Zabrze −1.6 Elo

Matchday 13
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,645.1 Elo · 720 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 13
Fri 30 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,645.1 Elo · 719 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Correction · Matchday 12
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,645.1 Elo · 718 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 12
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,645.1 Elo · 718 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 12
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,635.3 Elo · 717 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 12
Sun 25 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,635.3 Elo · 716 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Correction · Matchday 12
Sat 24 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,635.3 Elo · 715 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa
Matchday 12
Sat 24 Oct

Leader Lech Poznań · 1,635.3 Elo · 715 results

#1 Lech Poznań · #2 Górnik Zabrze · #3 Legia Warszawa

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

Raków Częstochowa: Volt has them 4 places higher than the table.

Rating ahead

Katowice: Volt has them 3 places higher than the table.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
Lech Poznań
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #2 Elo 1,645.1 +24.9 last 5 LWWWW

69.7 GV

#1 28 pts

#2 LWWWW
1,645.1 +24.9
#2
Górnik Zabrze
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #2 Form #9 Elo 1,594.0 +1.9 last 5 DWDDD

63.2 GV

#2 27 pts

#9 DWDDD
1,594.0 +1.9
#3
Legia Warszawa
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

Table #4 Form #8 Elo 1,580.0 +12.5 last 5 WWDLD

61.3 GV

#4 23 pts

#8 WWDLD
1,580.0 +12.5
#4
Pogoń Szczecin
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #3 Form #1 Elo 1,568.7 +46.7 last 5 WWWWW

59.8 GV

#3 24 pts

#1 WWWWW
1,568.7 +46.7
#5
Wisła Kraków
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #5 Form #5 Elo 1,532.1 +17.8 last 5 WWLDW

54.6 GV

#5 21 pts

#5 WWLDW
1,532.1 +17.8
#6
Katowice
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

Table #9 Form #6 Elo 1,529.0 +7.0 last 5 WWWLL

54.2 GV

#9 18 pts

#6 WWWLL
1,529.0 +7.0
#7
Jagiellonia Białystok
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #10 Form #17 Elo 1,528.1 −40.5 last 5 LLLLW

54.0 GV

#10 15 pts

#17 LLLLW
1,528.1 −40.5
#8
Piast Gliwice
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #6 Form #4 Elo 1,521.1 +24.7 last 5 WLWDW

53.0 GV

#6 20 pts

#4 WLWDW
1,521.1 +24.7
#9
Zagłębie Lubin
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #7 Form #10 Elo 1,506.8 −7.3 last 5 WLLWD

51.0 GV

#7 19 pts

#10 WLLWD
1,506.8 −7.3
#10
Korona Kielce
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #8 Form #11 Elo 1,505.9 −11.9 last 5 LWLLW

50.9 GV

#8 18 pts

#11 LWLLW
1,505.9 −11.9
#11
Motor Lublin
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #12 Form #3 Elo 1,489.3 +32.2 last 5 DWWDW

48.5 GV

#12 13 pts

#3 DWWDW
1,489.3 +32.2
#12
Widzew Lodz
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #14 Form #12 Elo 1,478.1 −4.0 last 5 DDLDD

46.9 GV

#14 11 pts

#12 DDLDD
1,478.1 −4.0
#13
Wisła Płock
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

Table #11 Form #7 Elo 1,477.3 +14.2 last 5 WWLWL

46.7 GV

#11 14 pts

#7 WWLWL
1,477.3 +14.2
#14
Raków Częstochowa
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

Table #18 Form #16 Elo 1,475.2 −29.6 last 5 LLLWL

46.4 GV

#18 6 pts

#16 LLLWL
1,475.2 −29.6
#15
Cracovia Kraków
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #13 Form #14 Elo 1,455.1 −13.0 last 5 LWDLL

43.6 GV

#13 12 pts

#14 LWDLL
1,455.1 −13.0
#16
Wieczysta Kraków
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #17 Form #13 Elo 1,449.0 −15.5 last 5 DWLLL

42.7 GV

#17 8 pts

#13 DWLLL
1,449.0 −15.5
#17
Śląsk Wrocław
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #15 Form #15 Elo 1,440.6 −21.1 last 5 LLLLW

41.5 GV

#15 9 pts

#15 LLLLW
1,440.6 −21.1
#18
Radomiak Radom
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #16 Form #18 Elo 1,435.9 −46.0 last 5 LLLLL

40.9 GV

#16 8 pts

#18 LLLLL
1,435.9 −46.0

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 720 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Ekstraklasa

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.