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Poland

1. Liga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025 2023/2024
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 24.1%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Elo 1,516.0
    Title 10.3%
    Direct drop 0.8%
    Exp. finish 5.6
  2. #2
    Polonia Warszawa Elo 1,548.1
    Title 18.2%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 4.5
  3. #3
    Ruch Chorzów Elo 1,553.3
    Title 20.1%
    Direct drop 0.3%
    Exp. finish 4.4
  4. #4
    ŁKS Łódź Elo 1,550.1
    Title 15.4%
    Direct drop 0.4%
    Exp. finish 4.8
  5. #5
    Nieciecza Elo 1,558.8
    Title 14.7%
    Direct drop 0.4%
    Exp. finish 4.9
  6. #6
    Lechia Gdańsk Elo 1,540.8
    Title 9.0%
    Direct drop 1.2%
    Exp. finish 6.0
  7. #7
    Miedź Legnica Elo 1,529.8
    Title 4.8%
    Direct drop 2.2%
    Exp. finish 7.2
  8. #8
    Warta Poznań Elo 1,460.6
    Title 1.0%
    Direct drop 9.2%
    Exp. finish 9.9
  9. #9
    Polonia Bytom Elo 1,514.5
    Title 3.3%
    Direct drop 3.6%
    Exp. finish 8.1
  10. #10
    Stal Rzeszów Elo 1,465.3
    Title 0.7%
    Direct drop 14.4%
    Exp. finish 11.0
  11. #11
    Pogoń Siedlce Elo 1,451.3
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 28.5%
    Exp. finish 12.9
  12. #12
    Arka Gdynia Elo 1,537.7
    Title 1.7%
    Direct drop 6.5%
    Exp. finish 9.2
  13. #13
    Podbeskidzie Elo 1,463.8
    Title 0.2%
    Direct drop 27.3%
    Exp. finish 12.7
  14. #14
    Chrobry Głogów Elo 1,483.2
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 27.3%
    Exp. finish 12.8
  15. #15
    Stal Mielec Elo 1,450.8
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 47.9%
    Exp. finish 14.5
  16. #16
    Puszcza Niepołomice Elo 1,490.4
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 29.5%
    Exp. finish 13.0
  17. #17
    Odra Opole Elo 1,452.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 49.0%
    Exp. finish 14.6
  18. #18
    Unia Skierniewice Elo 1,461.0
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 51.2%
    Exp. finish 14.8

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki v Stal Mielec

H 49.6% · D 23.3% · A 27.1%

H D A

Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań

H 42.7% · D 23.9% · A 33.3%

H D A

Miedź Legnica v Nieciecza

H 39.2% · D 24.1% · A 36.8%

H D A

Lechia Gdańsk v Unia Skierniewice

H 51.3% · D 23.0% · A 25.7%

H D A

Polonia Bytom v Odra Opole

H 49.3% · D 23.3% · A 27.4%

H D A

ŁKS Łódź v Polonia Warszawa

H 42.6% · D 23.9% · A 33.5%

H D A

Stal Rzeszów v Puszcza Niepołomice

H 39.6% · D 24.1% · A 36.3%

H D A

Pogoń Siedlce v Ruch Chorzów

H 31.4% · D 23.8% · A 44.8%

H D A

Chrobry Głogów v Arka Gdynia

H 36.4% · D 24.1% · A 39.6%

H D A

Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedź Legnica

H 38.0% · D 24.1% · A 37.9%

H D A

Odra Opole v Unia Skierniewice

H 41.5% · D 24.0% · A 34.5%

H D A

Warta Poznań v Polonia Warszawa

H 32.9% · D 23.9% · A 43.2%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 198 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1031 results

    #1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 ŁKS Łódź

  2. Matchday 12

    Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1031 results

    #1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 ŁKS Łódź

  3. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1030 results

    #1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 Polonia Warszawa

  4. Matchday 12

    Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1030 results

    #1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 Polonia Warszawa

  5. Matchday 12

    Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1029 results

    #1 Nieciecza · #2 Ruch Chorzów · #3 Polonia Warszawa

  6. Matchday 12

    Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1028 results

    #1 Nieciecza · #2 Polonia Warszawa · #3 Ruch Chorzów

  7. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1027 results

    #1 Nieciecza · #2 Polonia Warszawa · #3 Ruch Chorzów

  8. Matchday 12

    Leader Nieciecza · 1,558.8 Elo · 1027 results

    #1 Nieciecza · #2 Polonia Warszawa · #3 Ruch Chorzów

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki: the table has them 7 places higher than Volt.

Results ahead

Warta Poznań: the table has them 7 places higher than Volt.
  1. #1
    Nieciecza

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #5 Form #5 Elo 1,558.8 +10.0 last 5 WWDWL
    58.4 GV
  2. #2
    Ruch Chorzów

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #2 Elo 1,553.3 +32.5 last 5 DDWWW
    57.6 GV
  3. #3
    ŁKS Łódź

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #4 Form #8 Elo 1,550.1 −2.1 last 5 WLLWW
    57.2 GV
  4. #4
    Polonia Warszawa

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #3 Elo 1,548.1 +30.0 last 5 DWWWD
    56.9 GV
  5. #5
    Lechia Gdańsk

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #6 Form #1 Elo 1,540.8 +28.9 last 5 WWWWL
    55.8 GV
  6. #6
    Arka Gdynia

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #12 Form #16 Elo 1,537.7 −36.6 last 5 LLLLW
    55.4 GV
  7. #7
    Miedź Legnica

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #7 Form #14 Elo 1,529.8 −22.2 last 5 LLLWD
    54.3 GV
  8. #8
    Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #1 Form #10 Elo 1,516.0 −3.0 last 5 LWWLL
    52.3 GV
  9. #9
    Polonia Bytom

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #9 Form #4 Elo 1,514.5 +32.1 last 5 DDWWW
    52.1 GV
  10. #10
    Puszcza Niepołomice

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #16 Form #11 Elo 1,490.4 −5.1 last 5 LLWLW
    48.6 GV
  11. #11
    Chrobry Głogów

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #14 Form #18 Elo 1,483.2 −38.5 last 5 DLLLD
    47.6 GV
  12. #12
    Stal Rzeszów

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #10 Form #7 Elo 1,465.3 +17.4 last 5 WWLWL
    45.0 GV
  13. #13
    Podbeskidzie

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #13 Form #9 Elo 1,463.8 +14.8 last 5 DDWLW
    44.8 GV
  14. #14
    Unia Skierniewice

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #18 Form #13 Elo 1,461.0 −7.7 last 5 WDDLL
    44.4 GV
  15. #15
    Warta Poznań

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #8 Form #6 Elo 1,460.6 +18.3 last 5 WWLWL
    44.4 GV
  16. #16
    Odra Opole

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #17 Form #17 Elo 1,452.8 −29.8 last 5 LLWLL
    43.3 GV
  17. #17
    Pogoń Siedlce

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #11 Form #12 Elo 1,451.3 −10.3 last 5 WLLLW
    43.0 GV
  18. #18
    Stal Mielec

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #15 Form #15 Elo 1,450.8 −21.7 last 5 LLWLD
    43.0 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 1031 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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