Germany

Bundesliga

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025

Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 20.6%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

#1
FC Bayern München Elo 1,723.3

Title 77.3%

Europe 100.0%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 1.3
#2
Borussia Dortmund Elo 1,638.8

Title 18.4%

Europe 98.2%

Direct drop 0.0%

Exp. finish 2.4
#3
SC Freiburg Elo 1,532.1

Title 0.6%

Europe 58.0%

Direct drop 0.7%

Exp. finish 6.6
#4
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Elo 1,580.1

Title 2.2%

Europe 80.3%

Direct drop 0.1%

Exp. finish 4.8
#5
RB Leipzig Elo 1,568.6

Title 1.1%

Europe 73.1%

Direct drop 0.2%

Exp. finish 5.4
#6
Werder Bremen Elo 1,481.1

Title 0.0%

Europe 24.6%

Direct drop 4.1%

Exp. finish 9.6
#7
FSV Mainz 05 Elo 1,502.2

Title 0.1%

Europe 21.0%

Direct drop 5.1%

Exp. finish 10.0
#8
Elversberg Elo 1,502.1

Title 0.1%

Europe 25.7%

Direct drop 4.2%

Exp. finish 9.6
#9
FC Augsburg Elo 1,497.6

Title 0.1%

Europe 20.0%

Direct drop 6.1%

Exp. finish 10.3
#10
TSG Hoffenheim Elo 1,522.8

Title 0.1%

Europe 27.3%

Direct drop 3.0%

Exp. finish 9.3
#11
Hamburger SV Elo 1,470.4

Title 0.0%

Europe 9.9%

Direct drop 12.8%

Exp. finish 12.0
#12
FC Köln Elo 1,442.1

Title 0.0%

Europe 2.9%

Direct drop 31.1%

Exp. finish 14.2
#13
Paderborn Elo 1,493.2

Title 0.0%

Europe 12.3%

Direct drop 10.0%

Exp. finish 11.4
#14
Eintracht Frankfurt Elo 1,491.5

Title 0.0%

Europe 12.0%

Direct drop 10.1%

Exp. finish 11.5
#15
VfB Stuttgart Elo 1,536.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 23.9%

Direct drop 4.9%

Exp. finish 9.8
#16
Schalke 04 Elo 1,484.8

Title 0.0%

Europe 6.8%

Direct drop 17.0%

Exp. finish 12.7
#17
FC Union Berlin Elo 1,455.5

Title 0.0%

Europe 3.4%

Direct drop 30.2%

Exp. finish 14.1
#18
Borussia Mönchengladbach Elo 1,436.3

Title 0.0%

Europe 0.7%

Direct drop 60.4%

Exp. finish 16.1

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Fri 30 Oct
20:30

Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05

H 44.3% · D 20.5% · A 35.2%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
15:30

Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig

H 34.8% · D 20.5% · A 44.7%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
15:30

Werder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim

H 39.5% · D 20.6% · A 39.9%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
15:30

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Paderborn

H 37.8% · D 20.6% · A 41.6%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
15:30

FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg

H 40.3% · D 20.6% · A 39.1%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
15:30

Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart

H 49.4% · D 20.2% · A 30.5%

H D A

Sat 31 Oct
18:30

FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund

H 54.0% · D 19.6% · A 26.4%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
15:30

FC Union Berlin v FC Köln

H 45.8% · D 20.4% · A 33.7%

H D A

Sun 1 Nov
17:30

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV

H 46.7% · D 20.4% · A 32.9%

H D A

Fri 6 Nov
20:30

Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach

H 48.2% · D 20.3% · A 31.5%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
15:30

Paderborn v Eintracht Frankfurt

H 44.5% · D 20.5% · A 35.0%

H D A

Sat 7 Nov
15:30

FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München

H 21.2% · D 18.6% · A 60.2%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 243 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

Correction · Matchday 7
Sun 25 Oct

Leader FC Bayern München · 1,723.3 Elo · 674 results

#1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Matchday 7
Sun 25 Oct

Leader FC Bayern München · 1,723.3 Elo · 674 results

#1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Matchday 7
Sun 25 Oct

Leader FC Bayern München · 1,715.5 Elo · 673 results

#1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Correction · Matchday 7
Sat 24 Oct

Leader FC Bayern München · 1,715.5 Elo · 672 results

#1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Matchday 7
Sat 24 Oct

Leader FC Bayern München · 1,715.5 Elo · 672 results

#1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Matchday 7
Sat 24 Oct

Leader FC Bayern München · 1,715.5 Elo · 671 results

#1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Correction · Matchday 7
Fri 23 Oct

Leader FC Bayern München · 1,715.5 Elo · 666 results

#1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Matchday 7
Fri 23 Oct

Leader FC Bayern München · 1,715.5 Elo · 666 results

#1 FC Bayern München · #2 Borussia Dortmund · #3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Rating ahead

VfB Stuttgart: Volt has them 10 places higher than the table.

Results ahead

Werder Bremen: the table has them 8 places higher than Volt.

Rank Club GV Table Form Elo Last 5

#1
FC Bayern München
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,723.3 +22.6 last 5 WWDWW

78.3 GV

#1 17 pts

#1 WWDWW
1,723.3 +22.6
#2
Borussia Dortmund
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,638.8 +12.1 last 5 WWDDW

69.0 GV

#2 17 pts

#2 WWDDW
1,638.8 +12.1
#3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #4 Form #3 Elo 1,580.1 +11.7 last 5 DWWWL

61.3 GV

#4 13 pts

#3 DWWWL
1,580.1 +11.7
#4
RB Leipzig
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #5 Form #4 Elo 1,568.6 +14.1 last 5 WLWLW

59.7 GV

#5 12 pts

#4 WLWLW
1,568.6 +14.1
#5
VfB Stuttgart
Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

Table #15 Form #16 Elo 1,536.3 −33.7 last 5 LLWLL

55.2 GV

#15 6 pts

#16 LLWLL
1,536.3 −33.7
#6
SC Freiburg
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #3 Form #8 Elo 1,532.1 +3.3 last 5 WDWLL

54.6 GV

#3 13 pts

#8 WDWLL
1,532.1 +3.3
#7
TSG Hoffenheim
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #10 Form #5 Elo 1,522.8 +10.4 last 5 WLLWW

53.3 GV

#10 9 pts

#5 WLLWW
1,522.8 +10.4
#8
FSV Mainz 05
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #7 Form #11 Elo 1,502.2 −16.1 last 5 LWLWL

50.3 GV

#7 10 pts

#11 LWLWL
1,502.2 −16.1
#9
Elversberg
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #8 Form #15 Elo 1,502.1 −18.8 last 5 LDLWL

50.3 GV

#8 10 pts

#15 LDLWL
1,502.1 −18.8
#10
FC Augsburg
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #9 Form #17 Elo 1,497.6 −17.2 last 5 DLDLD

49.7 GV

#9 9 pts

#17 DLDLD
1,497.6 −17.2
#11
Paderborn
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #13 Form #9 Elo 1,493.2 +2.6 last 5 LWLDW

49.0 GV

#13 8 pts

#9 LWLDW
1,493.2 +2.6
#12
Eintracht Frankfurt
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #14 Form #10 Elo 1,491.5 +5.3 last 5 WDLWL

48.8 GV

#14 8 pts

#10 WDLWL
1,491.5 +5.3
#13
Schalke 04
Volt and recent results tell different stories.

Table #16 Form #12 Elo 1,484.8 −7.1 last 5 WDLLD

47.8 GV

#16 6 pts

#12 WDLLD
1,484.8 −7.1
#14
Werder Bremen
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #6 Form #6 Elo 1,481.1 +29.0 last 5 DWDDW

47.3 GV

#6 12 pts

#6 DWDDW
1,481.1 +29.0
#15
Hamburger SV
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #11 Form #7 Elo 1,470.4 +14.8 last 5 LWWWL

45.8 GV

#11 9 pts

#7 LWWWL
1,470.4 +14.8
#16
FC Union Berlin
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #17 Form #14 Elo 1,455.5 0.0 last 5 LLWDD

43.6 GV

#17 6 pts

#14 LLWDD
1,455.5 0.0
#17
FC Köln
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

Table #12 Form #13 Elo 1,442.1 −8.9 last 5 DLWLD

41.7 GV

#12 8 pts

#13 DLWLD
1,442.1 −8.9
#18
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Volt, table and form broadly agree.

Table #18 Form #18 Elo 1,436.3 −24.0 last 5 LLLLW

40.9 GV

#18 3 pts

#18 LLLLW
1,436.3 −24.0

Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 674 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

Bundesliga

Every resultchanges the route.

Baseline probabilities

Lock the next result

How the ranking moved

Power, table and form

Every result
changes the route.