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Saudi Arabia

Pro League

Season 2026/2027 2025/2026 2024/2025
Power Paths 18 clubs

Season probability engine / Power Paths

Every result
changes the route.

A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.

Exactly 10,000 simulations Davidson / Elo Observed draw rate 25.7%

Unchanged schedule

Baseline probabilities

Now Club Title Direct drop Expected finish
  1. #1
    Al-Qadsiah Elo 1,683.0
    Title 17.5%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.7
  2. #2
    Al Nassr Elo 1,697.9
    Title 23.6%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 2.4
  3. #3
    Al Hilal Elo 1,719.4
    Title 55.5%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 1.7
  4. #4
    Al Ittihad Elo 1,610.9
    Title 2.0%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 4.3
  5. #5
    NEOM SC Elo 1,538.6
    Title 0.1%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 6.4
  6. #6
    Al Ahli Elo 1,637.8
    Title 1.3%
    Direct drop 0.0%
    Exp. finish 4.6
  7. #7
    Al Ettifaq Elo 1,528.9
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 0.1%
    Exp. finish 7.5
  8. #8
    Al Diraiyah FC Elo 1,495.6
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 2.9%
    Exp. finish 9.9
  9. #9
    Al Khaleej Elo 1,465.7
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 5.1%
    Exp. finish 10.8
  10. #10
    Al Shabab Elo 1,503.2
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 2.1%
    Exp. finish 9.6
  11. #11
    Al Kholood Elo 1,441.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 14.2%
    Exp. finish 12.2
  12. #12
    Al Riyadh Elo 1,438.8
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 16.6%
    Exp. finish 12.5
  13. #13
    Al Hazm Elo 1,456.3
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 25.7%
    Exp. finish 13.4
  14. #14
    Al Faisaly Elo 1,478.7
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 11.2%
    Exp. finish 11.8
  15. #15
    Al-Fayha Elo 1,439.4
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 35.3%
    Exp. finish 14.2
  16. #16
    Al Fateh Elo 1,419.7
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 60.7%
    Exp. finish 15.6
  17. #17
    Al Taawoun Elo 1,447.0
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 61.6%
    Exp. finish 15.7
  18. #18
    Abha Elo 1,439.7
    Title 0.0%
    Direct drop 64.4%
    Exp. finish 15.8

Competition-specific qualification rules are not configured for this league, so those probabilities are hidden.

What-if Lab

Lock the next result

H, D and A mean home win, draw and away win. Every click returns a shareable, season-specific URL; no scenario code needs typing.

Al Taawoun v Al Ettifaq

H 32.7% · D 25.6% · A 41.7%

H D A

Al-Fayha v Al Faisaly

H 37.2% · D 25.7% · A 37.1%

H D A

Al Hilal v Al Fateh

H 71.3% · D 18.6% · A 10.1%

H D A

Al Kholood v Al Khaleej

H 38.9% · D 25.7% · A 35.4%

H D A

Abha v Al Shabab

H 34.6% · D 25.7% · A 39.7%

H D A

Al-Qadsiah v Al-Fayha

H 66.6% · D 20.4% · A 13.0%

H D A

Al Fateh v Al Riyadh

H 39.4% · D 25.7% · A 34.9%

H D A

Al Hazm v Al Nassr

H 18.4% · D 22.8% · A 58.8%

H D A

Al Ittihad v NEOM SC

H 49.4% · D 24.8% · A 25.9%

H D A

Al Faisaly v Al Diraiyah FC

H 39.6% · D 25.7% · A 34.7%

H D A

Al Ettifaq v Al Hilal

H 22.5% · D 24.0% · A 53.5%

H D A

Al Ahli v Al Taawoun

H 61.7% · D 22.0% · A 16.3%

H D A

Showing the next 12 of 205 remaining fixtures.

Power Race / archived checkpoints

How the ranking moved

Biggest riser

No upward rank movement.

Biggest faller

No downward rank movement.

Correction checkpoint: movement compares the two latest stored boards, not necessarily two new matchdays.

  1. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Al Hilal · 1,719.4 Elo · 712 results

    #1 Al Hilal · #2 Al Nassr · #3 Al-Qadsiah

  2. Matchday 12

    Leader Al Hilal · 1,719.4 Elo · 712 results

    #1 Al Hilal · #2 Al Nassr · #3 Al-Qadsiah

  3. Matchday 12

    Leader Al Hilal · 1,719.4 Elo · 711 results

    #1 Al Hilal · #2 Al Nassr · #3 Al-Qadsiah

  4. Matchday 12

    Leader Al Hilal · 1,719.4 Elo · 710 results

    #1 Al Hilal · #2 Al Nassr · #3 Al-Qadsiah

  5. Correction · Matchday 12

    Leader Al Hilal · 1,719.4 Elo · 709 results

    #1 Al Hilal · #2 Al Nassr · #3 Al-Qadsiah

  6. Matchday 12

    Leader Al Hilal · 1,719.4 Elo · 709 results

    #1 Al Hilal · #2 Al Nassr · #3 Al-Qadsiah

  7. Matchday 12

    Leader Al Hilal · 1,719.4 Elo · 708 results

    #1 Al Hilal · #2 Al Nassr · #3 Al-Qadsiah

  8. Matchday 12

    Leader Al Hilal · 1,719.4 Elo · 707 results

    #1 Al Hilal · #2 Al Nassr · #3 Al-Qadsiah

GolVolt results-only model

Power, table and form

Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.

Results ahead

Al Riyadh: the table has them 5 places higher than Volt.

Rating ahead

Al Faisaly: Volt has them 4 places higher than the table.
  1. #1
    Al Hilal

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #3 Form #3 Elo 1,719.4 +9.1 last 5 LWWWW
    78.0 GV
  2. #2
    Al Nassr

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #2 Form #1 Elo 1,697.9 +16.8 last 5 DWWWW
    75.7 GV
  3. #3
    Al-Qadsiah

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #1 Form #2 Elo 1,683.0 +16.0 last 5 WWWLW
    74.1 GV
  4. #4
    Al Ahli

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #6 Form #4 Elo 1,637.8 +4.7 last 5 WWWWL
    68.8 GV
  5. #5
    Al Ittihad

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #4 Form #6 Elo 1,610.9 +20.5 last 5 WLWWD
    65.4 GV
  6. #6
    NEOM SC

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #5 Form #9 Elo 1,538.6 +2.5 last 5 DLLWW
    55.5 GV
  7. #7
    Al Ettifaq

    Volt, table and form broadly agree.

    Table #7 Form #8 Elo 1,528.9 +13.7 last 5 DDWLW
    54.1 GV
  8. #8
    Al Shabab

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #10 Form #5 Elo 1,503.2 +44.6 last 5 DWDWW
    50.5 GV
  9. #9
    Al Diraiyah FC

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #8 Form #12 Elo 1,495.6 −20.5 last 5 LDWLL
    49.4 GV
  10. #10
    Al Faisaly

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #14 Form #10 Elo 1,478.7 +4.0 last 5 LWDLW
    46.9 GV
  11. #11
    Al Khaleej

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #9 Form #7 Elo 1,465.7 +31.8 last 5 DWWLW
    45.1 GV
  12. #12
    Al Hazm

    Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.

    Table #13 Form #15 Elo 1,456.3 −29.4 last 5 DLLDL
    43.7 GV
  13. #13
    Al Taawoun

    Volt ranks them higher than both the table and recent form.

    Table #17 Form #17 Elo 1,447.0 −33.9 last 5 LLDLL
    42.4 GV
  14. #14
    Al Kholood

    Volt and recent results tell different stories.

    Table #11 Form #18 Elo 1,441.8 −48.5 last 5 LLLLL
    41.7 GV
  15. #15
    Abha

    Volt ranks them higher than the table does.

    Table #18 Form #16 Elo 1,439.7 −16.4 last 5 DLLLD
    41.4 GV
  16. #16
    Al-Fayha

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #15 Form #13 Elo 1,439.4 −15.4 last 5 DDLLD
    41.4 GV
  17. #17
    Al Riyadh

    The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.

    Table #12 Form #11 Elo 1,438.8 +8.6 last 5 WDLWL
    41.3 GV
  18. #18
    Al Fateh

    Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.

    Table #16 Form #14 Elo 1,419.7 −27.5 last 5 LLWLL
    38.6 GV
Method and limits

Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.

Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.

GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.

Coverage: 712 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.

Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.

Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.

Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.

Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.

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