Japan
J1 League
Season probability engine / Power Paths
Every result
changes the route.
A transparent season run-out from today's table and competition-only Power ratings. Lock a result below to see the same random paths replayed around your scenario.
Projection unavailable
Power Paths could not run
A league fixture is currently live; Power Paths refreshes after it settles.
Power Race / archived checkpoints
How the ranking moved
Biggest riser
FC Tokyo +2 places
Biggest faller
Kashima Antlers -1 place
Shimizu S-Pulse -1 place
Vissel Kobe -1 place
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Matchday 13
Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,626.1 Elo · 6475 results
#1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol
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Matchday 12
Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6472 results
#1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol
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Matchday 12
Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6470 results
#1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol
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Matchday 12
Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6468 results
#1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol
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Matchday 12
Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6467 results
#1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol
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Matchday 12
Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6466 results
#1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashiwa Reysol
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Matchday 12
Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6464 results
#1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashima Antlers
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Matchday 12
Leader Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1,616.8 Elo · 6463 results
#1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · #2 Machida Zelvia · #3 Kashima Antlers
GolVolt results-only model
Power, table and form
Power is a chronological opponent-adjusted Elo rating. Official position and last-five league form remain separate, so disagreement stays visible.
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#1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Volt, table and form broadly agree.
Table #2 Form #2 Elo 1,626.1 +13.6 last 5 WWLWW67.4 GV#2 29 pts#2 WWLWW -
#2
65.5 GV#3 27 pts#4 LWWWD
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#3
65.5 GV#4 25 pts#5 WWLDW
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#4
FC Tokyo
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.
Table #1 Form #1 Elo 1,597.7 +43.3 last 5 WWDWW63.7 GV#1 30 pts#1 WWDWW -
#5
Kashima Antlers
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.
Table #8 Form #7 Elo 1,595.7 +1.5 last 5 DWWDL63.4 GV#8 20 pts#7 DWWDL -
#6
Vissel Kobe
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #5 Form #10 Elo 1,594.1 −2.9 last 5 WLWLD63.2 GV#5 23 pts#10 WLWLD -
#7
Kawasaki Frontale
Volt, table and form broadly agree.
Table #6 Form #6 Elo 1,563.6 +16.5 last 5 DLWWW59.1 GV#6 22 pts#6 DLWWW -
#8
Urawa Reds
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.
Table #7 Form #3 Elo 1,542.8 +22.0 last 5 WLWWW56.1 GV#7 21 pts#3 WLWWW -
#9
Yokohama F. Marinos
Volt, table and form broadly agree.
Table #9 Form #9 Elo 1,542.3 +3.2 last 5 WDDDD56.1 GV#9 18 pts#9 WDDDD -
#10
Kyoto Sanga
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.
Table #14 Form #12 Elo 1,526.6 −7.7 last 5 LLDDW53.8 GV#14 13 pts#12 LLDDW -
#11
Gamba Osaka
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.
Table #16 Form #13 Elo 1,494.7 −5.3 last 5 LLDWD49.2 GV#16 11 pts#13 LLDWD -
#12
48.6 GV#12 14 pts#14 DDLDD
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#13
V-Varen Nagasaki
Volt, table and form broadly agree.
Table #15 Form #11 Elo 1,481.0 +5.5 last 5 DDLWL47.3 GV#15 12 pts#11 DDLWL -
#14
Nagoya Grampus
The table and recent form both rank them higher than Volt.
Table #11 Form #8 Elo 1,478.8 +26.4 last 5 LWWDD47.0 GV#11 14 pts#8 LWWDD -
#15
Fagiano Okayama
Volt and recent results tell different stories.
Table #10 Form #19 Elo 1,461.3 −27.8 last 5 LLWLL44.5 GV#10 16 pts#19 LLWLL -
#16
Mito Hollyhock
Volt ranks them higher than recent form does.
Table #17 Form #20 Elo 1,451.0 −53.4 last 5 LLLLL43.0 GV#17 9 pts#20 LLLLL -
#17
JEF United
Volt ranks them higher than the table does.
Table #20 Form #17 Elo 1,449.1 −12.4 last 5 LDDLD42.7 GV#20 7 pts#17 LDDLD -
#18
Shimizu S-Pulse
The table ranks them higher than Volt does.
Table #13 Form #16 Elo 1,443.8 −16.5 last 5 WDLLL42.0 GV#13 14 pts#16 WDLLL -
#19
Tokyo Verdy
Recent form ranks them higher than Volt does.
Table #18 Form #15 Elo 1,436.5 −11.0 last 5 LLLDW41.0 GV#18 8 pts#15 LLLDW -
#20
Avispa Fukuoka
Volt, table and form broadly agree.
Table #19 Form #18 Elo 1,435.8 −27.2 last 5 LWLLL40.9 GV#19 7 pts#18 LWLLL
Method and limits
Rating: 1500 base, K 20, a bounded goal-margin adjustment and 75% carry into the next season. Only full-time results from this league update it.
Comparison: the table keeps its official order when available. Form ranks points per game from each club's last five league results.
GV score: a normalized 0-100 index against a 1500 reference club. It is not a match win probability.
Coverage: 6475 eligible results replayed. New clubs remain provisional until 5 results.
Match paths: Davidson converts the competition-only Elo gap, home advantage and this season's observed draw rate into H/D/A probabilities. Exactly 10,000 paths are sampled; injuries and future lineup news are not inputs.
Score arithmetic: Table arithmetic uses neutral representative scorelines: home win 1-0, draw 0-0, away win 0-1. They are not goals forecasts.
Tie caveat: Projected tables rank by points, goal difference, then goals for; exact remaining ties retain today's table order. A league's official tiebreak may differ, so near-tied projected places are indicative.
Projection limit: probabilities describe this model and current scheduled fixtures, not certainty. Postponements, roster changes and unmodeled competition rules can change the route.