GolVolt — FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München: preview, line-ups, chances

What to watch for

Facts from our data worth knowing before kick-off. After the match we check them ✓ / ✗.

Streak

FC Bayern München unbeaten in 17 matches

DDWWWWWDWWWDDWDWW

All competitions, friendlies excluded: 11 wins and 6 draws. Last defeat: 28 April, 4:5 against Paris Saint Germain.

Player in form

Harry Kane: 4 goals and 5 assists in 5 league matches

Goals4 xG4.78

Goals in line with the quality of his chances (xG 4.8).

Last time

Last meeting, 25 April: FSV Mainz 05 – FC Bayern München 3:4

WLWDW

FC Bayern München are unbeaten in the last 3 meetings.

What's at stake

FC Bayern München: a match for the title

70%after a loss 81%after a win

Title chances: 70% after a defeat, 81% after a win (10,000 simulations of the rest of the season).

Defence

FSV Mainz 05 concede 2.6 goals per match

FSV Mainz 052.6 FC Bayern München1.6

Last 5 matches in all competitions. FC Bayern München concede 1.6.

Attack

FC Bayern München score 4.0 goals per match

FSV Mainz 051.4 FC Bayern München4.0

Last 5 matches in all competitions. FSV Mainz 05 score 1.4.

Players to watch

Bundesliga, this season.

Sheraldo Becker

FSV Mainz 05 · forward

2goals 4assists 7.40avg rating

Last match, Elversberg: rating 6.8.

Michael Olise

FC Bayern München · midfielder

6goals 3assists 8.40avg rating

Last match, SC Freiburg: 1 goal and 1 assist, rating 9.0.

Who is out

Injuries and suspensions

The list usually arrives about 48 hours before kick-off. There is none for this match yet.

Recent matches

Bar height is the goal difference. Hover or tap a bar for the details.

“This set-up” is FSV Mainz 05 at home and FC Bayern München away, as in this match.

FSV Mainz 05

at home · 10

3W1D6L1.6scored per match1.9conceded per match

FC Bayern München

away · 10

6W3D1L2.5scored per match1.6conceded per match

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024.

Last time · 25 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 3:4 FC Bayern München Kohr 15' · Nebel 29' · Becker 45+2' · Jackson 53' · Olise 73' · Musiala 80' · Kane 83'

1wins

1 draw4.2 goals per match · both scored in 3 of 5

3wins

Expected lineups

For now, the last starting XI: FSV Mainz 05 (3-5-2, last: Elversberg) · FC Bayern München (4-2-3-1, last: Magdeburg).

Official around 14:30, Sat 7 Nov

RZZentner KPPotulski SPPosch DCda Costa PMMwene NAAmiri KSSano PNNebel ACCaci PTTietz SBBecker JUUrbig JSStanisic JTTah HIIto NBBrown KLLaimer TBBischof MOOlise LKKarl SGGnabry ISSaibari

FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München

When the provider publishes the expected XI (usually a day before the match), it replaces the last one. A player on the absence list stays on the pitch as a pale, dashed “ghost”.

Who wins?

The provider's forecast usually arrives a few days before kick-off.

What this match changes in the season

Each club's chance in its part of the table, after each result.

today after a defeat after a draw after a win

FSV Mainz 05 European-place chance today 12%

after a defeat: 10%
after a draw: 13%
after a win: 19%

FC Bayern München title chance today 78%

after a defeat: 70%
after a draw: 76%
after a win: 81%

FC Bayern München: 11 percentage points of title chance between a win and a defeat.

From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. How we count

Pro analysisGolVolt ProPro extends the free match profile with its own goals model, lineup stability and results from similar fixtures. Coverage depends on the available data.

Pro analysis

GolVolt Pro

Pro extends the free match profile with its own goals model, lineup stability and results from similar fixtures. Coverage depends on the available data.

Volt matchup

48.6 78.3