GolVolt — FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München: preview, line-ups, chances

Today

Bundesliga Matchday 9

FSV Mainz 05

15:30 Sat 7 Nov · your time in 5 days 16 h

FC Bayern München

Pre-match chances

16% FSV Mainz 05 20% draw FC Bayern München 64%

Pre-match result forecast (provider data).

A dot on a form pip marks another competition.

Where to watch: ESPN Select+1 Stadium: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What to watch for

Facts from our data worth knowing before kick-off. After the match we check them ✓ / ✗.

Streak

FC Bayern München unbeaten in 18 matches

DDWWWWWDWWWDDWDWWD

All competitions, friendlies excluded: 11 wins and 7 draws. Last defeat: 28 April, 4:5 against Paris Saint Germain.

Player in form

Michael Olise: 5 goals and 4 assists in 5 league matches

Goals5 xG2.34

Scoring more than his chances suggest (xG 2.3).

Last time

Last meeting, 25 April: FSV Mainz 05 – FC Bayern München 3:4

WWLWDW

FC Bayern München are unbeaten in the last 3 meetings.

What's at stake

FC Bayern München: a match for the title

66%after a loss 78%after a win

Title chances: 66% after a defeat, 78% after a win (10,000 simulations of the rest of the season).

Defence

FSV Mainz 05 concede 2.6 goals per match

FSV Mainz 052.6 FC Bayern München1.4

Last 5 matches in all competitions. FC Bayern München concede 1.4.

Attack

FC Bayern München score 3.8 goals per match

FSV Mainz 051.4 FC Bayern München3.8

Last 5 matches in all competitions. FSV Mainz 05 score 1.4.

Players to watch

Bundesliga, this season.

Sheraldo Becker

FSV Mainz 05 · forward

2goals 4assists 7.40avg rating

Last match, Elversberg: rating 6.8.

Michael Olise

FC Bayern München · midfielder

6goals 4assists 8.26avg rating

Last match, Borussia Dortmund: 1 assist, rating 7.3.

Who is out

Injuries and suspensions

The list usually arrives about 48 hours before kick-off. There is none for this match yet.

Recent matches

Bar height is the goal difference. Hover or tap a bar for the details.

“This set-up” is FSV Mainz 05 at home and FC Bayern München away, as in this match.

FSV Mainz 05

at home · 10

3W1D6L1.6scored per match1.9conceded per match

FC Bayern München

away · 10

6W3D1L2.5scored per match1.6conceded per match

Per match, the last 5 matches in all competitions: corners 5.6 · 6.2; cards 2.8 · 1.2

Head to head

41 meetings since 2005. The last 5 below.

Last time · 25 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 3:4 FC Bayern München Kohr 15' · Nebel 29' · Becker 45+2' · Jackson 53' · Olise 73' · Musiala 80' · Kane 83'

1wins

1 draw4.2 goals per match · both scored in 3 of 5

3wins

Show older (5)

9 Mar 2024Bundesliga FC Bayern München8:1FSV Mainz 05 Kane 13', 45+7', 70' · Goretzka 19', 90+2' · Müller 47' · Musiala 61' · Gnabry 66' · Amiri 31' not in our records
21 Oct 2023Bundesliga FSV Mainz 051:3FC Bayern München Caci 43' · Coman 11' · Kane 16' · Goretzka 59' before our records
22 Apr 2023Bundesliga FSV Mainz 053:1FC Bayern München Ajorque 65' · Barreiro 73' · Martín 79' · Mané 29' before our records
1 Feb 2023DFB Pokal FSV Mainz 050:4FC Bayern München Choupo-Moting 17' · Musiala 30' · Sané 44' · Davies 83' before our records
29 Oct 2022Bundesliga FC Bayern München6:2FSV Mainz 05 Gnabry 5' · Musiala 28' · Mané 43' · Goretzka 57' · Tel 79' · Choupo-Moting 86' · Widmer 45+4' · Ingvartsen 82' before our records

Expected lineups

For now, the last starting XI: FSV Mainz 05 (3-5-2, last: Elversberg) · FC Bayern München (4-2-3-1, last: Borussia Dortmund).

Official around 14:30, Sat 7 Nov

RZZentner KPPotulski SPPosch DCda Costa PMMwene NAAmiri KSSano PNNebel ACCaci PTTietz SBBecker JUUrbig KLLaimer DUUpamecano MKKim ADDavies JKKimmich APPavlovic MOOlise ISSaibari SGGnabry HKKane

FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München

When the provider publishes the expected XI (usually a day before the match), it replaces the last one. A player on the absence list stays on the pitch as a pale, dashed “ghost”.

Coaches

Urs FischerFSV Mainz 05 Aaron John DanksFC Bayern München

Full squads (55 players)

FSV Mainz 05

Goalkeepers

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

FC Bayern München

Goalkeepers

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

9 Harry Kane
46 Tim Binder

Who wins?

The data provider's forecast, not GolVolt's. It says how often a match like this ends each way.

16%FSV Mainz 05

20%draw

64%FC Bayern München

Out of 20 matches like this, FSV Mainz 05 win 3, 4 end level and FC Bayern München win 13.

The forecast leans to FC Bayern München. By Volt (strength from league results) FC Bayern München rate higher: 48.6 and 78.0.

Likeliest scores

The five likeliest from the score grid.

0:210%
1:210%
0:19%
1:18%
0:37%

How many goals?

The forecast, and under it what happened in each club's last 10 matches.

2+ goals81% FSV Mainz 05 8 of 10 · FC Bayern München 10 of 10
3+ goals62% FSV Mainz 05 7 of 10 · FC Bayern München 10 of 10
4+ goals40% FSV Mainz 05 7 of 10 · FC Bayern München 9 of 10
5+ goals28% FSV Mainz 05 6 of 10 · FC Bayern München 5 of 10

FC Bayern München: at least two goals in each of the last 10 matches.

Goals at both ends

Chance that each side scores: 56%.

What this match changes in the season

Each club's chance in its part of the table, after each result.

today after a defeat after a draw after a win

FSV Mainz 05 European-place chance today 12%

after a defeat: 9%
after a draw: 13%
after a win: 19%

FC Bayern München title chance today 74%

after a defeat: 66%
after a draw: 68%
after a win: 78%

FC Bayern München: 12 percentage points of title chance between a win and a defeat.

From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. How we count

Pro analysisGolVolt ProPro extends the free match profile with its own goals model, lineup stability and results from similar fixtures. Coverage depends on the available data.

Pro analysis

GolVolt Pro

Pro extends the free match profile with its own goals model, lineup stability and results from similar fixtures. Coverage depends on the available data.

Volt matchup

48.6 78.0