GolVolt — Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki: preview, line-ups, chances

Today

J1 League Matchday 14

Avispa Fukuoka

07:00 Sat 7 Nov · your time in 4 days 0 h

V-Varen Nagasaki

Pre-match chances

45% Avispa Fukuoka 26% draw V-Varen Nagasaki 29%

Pre-match result forecast (provider data).

Stadium: Best Denki Stadium (Fukuoka), Fukuoka

What to watch for

Facts from our data worth knowing before kick-off. After the match we check them ✓ / ✗.

What's at stake

Avispa Fukuoka: a match about staying up

84%after a loss 67%after a win

Relegation risk: 84% after a defeat, 67% after a win (10,000 simulations of the rest of the season).

Defence

Avispa Fukuoka concede 2.4 goals per match

Avispa Fukuoka2.4 V-Varen Nagasaki1.2

Last 5 matches in all competitions. V-Varen Nagasaki concede 1.2.

What's at stake

V-Varen Nagasaki: a match about staying up

27%after a loss 14%after a win

Relegation risk: 27% after a defeat, 14% after a win (10,000 simulations of the rest of the season).

Streak

Avispa Fukuoka without a win in 4 matches

LLLL

All competitions, friendlies excluded: 4 defeats. Last win: 10 October, 2:1 against Fagiano Okayama.

Players to watch

J1 League, this season.

Shu Morooka

Avispa Fukuoka · forward

3goals 1assist 6.89avg rating

Last match, JEF United: rating 6.3.

Matheus Jesus

V-Varen Nagasaki · forward

4goals 2assists 7.33avg rating

Last match, Tokyo Verdy: rating 6.8.

Who is out

Injuries and suspensions

The list usually arrives about 48 hours before kick-off. There is none for this match yet.

Recent matches

Bar height is the goal difference. Hover or tap a bar for the details.

“This set-up” is Avispa Fukuoka at home and V-Varen Nagasaki away, as in this match.

Avispa Fukuoka

at home · 10

5W1D4L1.2scored per match0.9conceded per match

V-Varen Nagasaki

away · 10

1W2D7L1.0scored per match1.9conceded per match

Per match, the last 5 matches in all competitions: corners 3.2 · 3.6; cards 2.2 · 1.8

Head to head

First competitive meeting.

Expected lineups

For now, the last starting XI: Avispa Fukuoka (5-3-2, last: JEF United) · V-Varen Nagasaki (3-4-2-1, last: Tokyo Verdy).

Official around 06:00, Sat 7 Nov

YOObata YMMaejima TOOka TKKamijima KMMikuni MYYuzawa TMMiki KSShiihashi MSShigemi WPPopó SMMorooka MGGoto RSShindo KDDoi YEEgawa HOOnaga HYYamaguchi MHHasegawa SYYoneda MJJesus EMEmerson JOJonathan

Avispa FukuokaV-Varen Nagasaki

When the provider publishes the expected XI (usually a day before the match), it replaces the last one. A player on the absence list stays on the pitch as a pale, dashed “ghost”.

Coaches

Shinya TsukaharaAvispa Fukuoka Norihiro SatsukawaV-Varen Nagasaki

Full squads (74 players)

Avispa Fukuoka

Goalkeepers

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

Squad

V-Varen Nagasaki

Goalkeepers

Defenders

Midfielders

Forwards

Who wins?

The data provider's forecast, not GolVolt's. It says how often a match like this ends each way.

45%Avispa Fukuoka

26%draw

29%V-Varen Nagasaki

Out of 20 matches like this, Avispa Fukuoka win 9, 5 end level and V-Varen Nagasaki win 6.

The forecast leans to Avispa Fukuoka. By Volt (strength from league results) V-Varen Nagasaki rate higher: 39.2 and 45.5.

Likeliest scores

The five likeliest from the score grid.

1:112%
1:011%
2:19%
0:19%
2:08%

How many goals?

The forecast, and under it what happened in each club's last 10 matches.

2+ goals73% Avispa Fukuoka 8 of 10 · V-Varen Nagasaki 9 of 10
3+ goals48% Avispa Fukuoka 7 of 10 · V-Varen Nagasaki 5 of 10
4+ goals26% Avispa Fukuoka 2 of 10 · V-Varen Nagasaki 3 of 10
5+ goals14% Avispa Fukuoka 1 of 10 · V-Varen Nagasaki 0 of 10

Goals at both ends

Chance that each side scores: 52%.

What this match changes in the season

Relegation risk after each result.

today after a defeat after a draw after a win

Avispa Fukuoka today 76%

after a defeat: 84%
after a draw: 78%
after a win: 67%

V-Varen Nagasaki today 21%

after a defeat: 27%
after a draw: 23%
after a win: 14%

Avispa Fukuoka: 17 percentage points of relegation risk between a win and a defeat.

From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. How we count

Pro analysisGolVolt ProPro extends the free match profile with its own goals model, lineup stability and results from similar fixtures. Coverage depends on the available data.

Pro analysis

GolVolt Pro

Pro extends the free match profile with its own goals model, lineup stability and results from similar fixtures. Coverage depends on the available data.

Volt matchup

39.2 45.5